Natural capital productivity as a decoupler of energy and emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper explores the relationship between decarbonization processes and energy-economic growth coupling dynamics in less developed regions of Sub-Saharan Africa. Using comprehensive analytics, this study illuminates the twin effects of energy use on economic growth vis-à-vis sustainability through theoretical frameworks typified by the load capacity curve and environmental Kuznets curve hypotheses. Using the data of 39 Sub-Saharan African countries in panel dynamic fixed effect quantile ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) with Fourier function. The study supports U-shaped energy intensity effects on carbon intensity, which is flipped to an inverted U-shape via the moderating role of natural capital productivity capacity, thus contributing to decoupling the energy–carbon emissions relationship. The controlling factors included electrification, development, and industrialization levels in the sample countries where development contributes in decarbonization while others lead to demand-led carbonization. The analysis conducted in this paper not only pursues the scale effect of energy in aiding growth but also supports sustainability through the energy transition and energy conservation. The findings reveal that the decarbonization pathway does not necessarily require a fall in energy intensity but rather the expansion of natural capital productivity that can contribute to environmental development. Policymakers can optimize the decarbonization‑leading energy use and productivity investment portfolio using the developed model.