IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v141y2025ics0140988324008387.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The cost of uncertainty: Analysing the influence of coal price changes, the Russia-Ukraine war and geopolitical risk on risk premiums in the Indian electricity spot market

Author

Listed:
  • Siddiki, Jalal
  • Singh, Prakash

Abstract

Using hourly data from June 1, 2020 to April 25, 2024, this paper first examines the characteristics of wholesale spot - Day-Ahead Market (DAM) and Real-Time Market (RTM) - prices in India. Second, we examine the impact on risk premiums (RPs) of changes in coal prices, the Russia-Ukraine war, demand conditions, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risks (GPRs). We find that spot prices are highly volatile. Average hourly DAM prices are significantly higher than RTM prices for most hours during both weekdays and weekends, resulting in positive RPs and reflecting supply shortages and the presence of inefficiency in Indian wholesale electricity markets. The Russia-Ukraine war, EPU, GPRs, coal prices and high peak-hour demand increase RPs and are critical factors in explaining RPs. Results are robust across data frequencies and across sample periods. The results suggest increasing product diversification to reduce dependence on coal-based electricity production. These results have important policy implications for attempts to circumvent uncertainty, given that the Russia-Ukraine war has accelerated the rise in energy prices and brought significant uncertainty to Indian and global energy markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Siddiki, Jalal & Singh, Prakash, 2025. "The cost of uncertainty: Analysing the influence of coal price changes, the Russia-Ukraine war and geopolitical risk on risk premiums in the Indian electricity spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:141:y:2025:i:c:s0140988324008387
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988324008387
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108129?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul H. Cootner, 1960. "Returns to Speculators: Telser versus Keynes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 396-396.
    2. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Sinha, Avik & Murshed, Muntasir, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict sentiments and energy market returns in G7 countries: Discovering the unexplored dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    4. Uddin, Moshfique & Chowdhury, Anup & Anderson, Keith & Chaudhuri, Kausik, 2021. "The effect of COVID – 19 pandemic on global stock market volatility: Can economic strength help to manage the uncertainty?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 31-44.
    5. Viehmann, Johannes, 2011. "Risk premiums in the German day-ahead Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 386-394, January.
    6. Douglas, Stratford & Popova, Julia, 2008. "Storage and the electricity forward premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1712-1727, July.
    7. Derek Bunn & Arne Andresen & Dipeng Chen & Sjur Westgaard, 2016. "Analysis and Forecasting of Electricity Price Risks with Quantile Factor Models," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1), pages 101-122, January.
    8. Lazarczyk, Ewa, 2016. "Market-specific news and its impact on forward premia on electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 326-336.
    9. Botterud, Audun & Kristiansen, Tarjei & Ilic, Marija D., 2010. "The relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 967-978, September.
    10. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    11. Redl, Christian & Haas, Reinhard & Huber, Claus & Böhm, Bernhard, 2009. "Price formation in electricity forward markets and the relevance of systematic forecast errors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 356-364, May.
    12. Derek Koolen & Derek Bunn & Wolfgang Ketter, 2021. "Renewable Energy Technologies and Electricity Forward Market Risks," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(4), pages 43-68, July.
    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1877-1900 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Valitov, Niyaz, 2019. "Risk premia in the German day-ahead electricity market revisited: The impact of negative prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 70-77.
    15. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    16. Erik Haugom & Peter Molnár & Magne Tysdahl, 2020. "Determinants of the Forward Premium in the Nord Pool Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-18, March.
    17. Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2012. "Market efficiency and risk premia in short-term forward prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1931-1941.
    18. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Kuik, Friderike & Schuler, Tobias & Lis, Eliza, 2022. "The impact of the war in Ukraine on euro area energy markets," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    19. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    20. David Hirshleifer, 1988. "Residual Risk, Trading Costs, and Commodity Futures Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 173-193.
    21. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    22. Derck Koolen, Derek Bunn, and Wolfgang Ketter, 2021. "Renewable Energy Technologies and Electricity Forward Market Risks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    23. Anderson, Edward J. & Hu, Xinmin, 2008. "Forward contracts and market power in an electricity market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 679-694, May.
    24. Prokhorov, Oleksandr & Dreisbach, Dina, 2022. "The impact of renewables on the incidents of negative prices in the energy spot markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    25. Miffre, Joëlle, 2016. "Long-short commodity investing: A review of the literature," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-13.
    26. Agrawal, Atul, 2022. "Real Time Market (RTM) at Indian power exchanges: Need, short term assessment and opportunities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Boqiang & Lan, Tianxu, 2025. "The transmission of coal price shock to Chinese industry: Sub-sectors and regions heterogeneity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George Daskalakis & Lazaros Symeonidis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2015. "Electricity Futures Prices in an Emissions Constrained Economy: Evidence from European Power Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 36(3), pages 1-34, July.
    2. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Diana, 2021. "Risk premia in electricity derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Koolen, Derck & Huisman, Ronald & Ketter, Wolfgang, 2022. "Decision strategies in sequential power markets with renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    4. Koten, Silvester Van, 2020. "Forward premia in electricity markets: A replication study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Bunn, Derek W. & Chen, Dipeng, 2013. "The forward premium in electricity futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-186.
    6. Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2012. "Market efficiency and risk premia in short-term forward prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1931-1941.
    7. van Koten, Silvester, 2021. "The forward premium in electricity markets: An experimental study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Weron, Rafał & Zator, Michał, 2014. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 178-190.
    9. Pawel Maryniak & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Carbon pricing, forward risk premiums and pass-through rates in Australian electricity futures markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    10. Christian Redl & Derek Bunn, 2013. "Determinants of the premium in forward contracts," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 90-111, January.
    11. Olmstead, Derek E.H. & Yatchew, Adonis, 2025. "Alberta's electricity futures market: An empirical analysis of price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    12. Valitov, Niyaz, 2019. "Risk premia in the German day-ahead electricity market revisited: The impact of negative prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 70-77.
    13. Maryniak, Paweł & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Carbon pricing and electricity markets — The case of the Australian Clean Energy Bill," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 45-58.
    14. repec:dui:wpaper:1504 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Lazarczyk, Ewa, 2013. "Market Specific News and Its Impact on Electricity Prices – Forward Premia," Working Paper Series 953, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 20 Aug 2013.
    16. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Miffre, Joelle, 2021. "The risk premia of energy futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    17. Michelfelder, Richard A. & Pilotte, Eugene A., 2021. "The electricity production cost curve during extreme winter weather," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    18. Ren'e Aid & Luciano Campi & Delphine Lautier, 2015. "On the spot-futures no-arbitrage relations in commodity markets," Papers 1501.00273, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    19. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Hagen, Liv Aune & Nygård, Maria Tandberg & Smith-Sivertsen, Ragnhild & Sollie, Johan M., 2015. "The overnight risk premium in electricity forward contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 293-300.
    20. Stefan Trück & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Convenience Yields and Risk Premiums in the EU‐ETS—Evidence from the Kyoto Commitment Period," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 587-611, June.
    21. Kallabis, Thomas & Pape, Christian & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 280-290.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk premiums; Wholesale electricity market in India; Coal price; The Russia-Ukraine war;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D46 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Value Theory
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:141:y:2025:i:c:s0140988324008387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.