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Risk premiums in the German day-ahead Electricity Market

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  • Viehmann, Johannes

Abstract

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of risk premiums in the German day-ahead Electricity Wholesale Market. We compare hourly price data of the European Energy Exchange (EEX) auction and of the continuous over-the-counter (OTC) market which takes place prior to the EEX auction. Data provided by the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA) has been used as a snapshot of the OTC market two hours prior to the EEX auction. Ex post analysis found market participants are willing to pay both significant positive and negative premiums for hourly contracts. The largest positive premiums were paid for high demand evening peak hours on weekdays during winter months. By contrast, night hours on weekends featuring lowest demand levels display negative premiums. Additionally, ex ante analysis found a strong positive correlation between the expected tightness of the system and positive premiums. For this purpose, a tightness factor has been introduced that includes expectations of fundamental factors such as power plant availability, wind power production and demand. Hence, findings by Longstaff and Wang (2004) can be supported that power traders in liberalised markets behave like risk-averse rational economic agents.

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  • Viehmann, Johannes, 2011. "Risk premiums in the German day-ahead Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 386-394, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:1:p:386-394
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paraschiv, Florentina, 2013. "Price Dynamics in Electricity Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1314, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Colwell, David B. & Xiao, Yuewen, 2013. "A jump diffusion model for spot electricity prices and market price of risk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(15), pages 3213-3222.
    3. Florian Ziel & Rick Steinert & Sven Husmann, 2015. "Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets," Papers 1501.00818, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2015.
    4. repec:dui:wpaper:1502 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Muche, Thomas, 2014. "Optimal operation and forecasting policy for pump storage plants in day-ahead markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1089-1099.
    6. Paschmann, Martin, 2017. "Economic Analysis of Price Premiums in the Presence of Non-convexities - Evidence from German Electricity Markets," EWI Working Papers 2017-12, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    7. Richter, Jan & Viehmann, Johannes, 2014. "The value of information in explicit cross-border capacity auction regimes in electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 74-84.
    8. Ren'e Aid & Luciano Campi & Delphine Lautier, 2015. "On the spot-futures no-arbitrage relations in commodity markets," Papers 1501.00273, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    9. Grant R. McDermott & Øivind A. Nilse, 2014. "Electricity Prices, River Temperatures, and Cooling Water Scarcity," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(1), pages 131-148.
    10. Bertsch, Joachim, 2015. "Is an inefficient transmission market better than none at all? On zonal and nodal pricing in electricity systems," EWI Working Papers 2015-5, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    11. Đurišić, Željko & Mikulović, Jovan & Babić, Iva, 2012. "Impact of wind speed variations on wind farm economy in the open market conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 289-296.
    12. repec:dui:wpaper:1504 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Kallabis, Thomas & Pape, Christian & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 280-290.
    14. Paraschiv, Florentina & Erni, David & Pietsch, Ralf, 2014. "The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 196-210.
    15. Pape, Christian & Hagemann, Simon & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "Are fundamentals enough? Explaining price variations in the German day-ahead and intraday power market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 376-387.
    16. George Daskalakis, Lazaros Symeonidis, Raphael N. Markellos, 2015. "Electricity futures prices in an emissions constrained economy: Evidence from European power markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    17. Obermüller, Frank, 2017. "Explaining Electricity Forward Premiums - Evidence for the Weather Uncertainty Effect," EWI Working Papers 2017-10, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    18. Peña, Juan Ignacio & Rodriguez, Rosa, 2016. "Time-zero efficiency of European power derivatives markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 253-268.
    19. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick & Husmann, Sven, 2015. "Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 430-444.

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