Support vector regression for warranty claim forecasting
Forecasting the number of warranty claims is vitally important for manufacturers/warranty providers in preparing fiscal plans. In existing literature, a number of techniques such as log-linear Poisson models, Kalman filter, time series models, and artificial neural network models have been developed. Nevertheless, one might find two weaknesses existing in these approaches: (1) they do not consider the fact that warranty claims reported in the recent months might be more important in forecasting future warranty claims than those reported in the earlier months, and (2) they are developed based on repair rates (i.e., the total number of claims divided by the total number of products in service), which can cause information loss through such an arithmetic-mean operation. To overcome the above two weaknesses, this paper introduces two different approaches to forecasting warranty claims: the first is a weighted support vector regression (SVR) model and the second is a weighted SVR-based time series model. These two approaches can be applied to two scenarios: when only claim rate data are available and when original claim data are available. Two case studies are conducted to validate the two modelling approaches. On the basis of model evaluation over six months ahead forecasting, the results show that the proposed models exhibit superior performance compared to that of multilayer perceptrons, radial basis function networks and ordinary support vector regression models.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bai, Jun & Pham, Hoang, 2006. "Cost analysis on renewable full-service warranties for multi-component systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 492-508, January.
- Lingras, P. & Butz, C.J., 2010. "Rough support vector regression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 445-455, October.
- Nesreen Ahmed & Amir Atiya & Neamat El Gayar & Hisham El-Shishiny, 2010. "An Empirical Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Time Series Forecasting," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 594-621.
- Trafalis, Theodore B. & Gilbert, Robin C., 2006. "Robust classification and regression using support vector machines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 173(3), pages 893-909, September.
- Carbonneau, Real & Laframboise, Kevin & Vahidov, Rustam, 2008. "Application of machine learning techniques for supply chain demand forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(3), pages 1140-1154, February.
- Murthy, D. N. P. & Djamaludin, I., 2002. "New product warranty: A literature review," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 231-260, October.
- Kim, Bowon & Park, Sangsun, 2008. "Optimal pricing, EOL (end of life) warranty, and spare parts manufacturing strategy amid product transition," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 188(3), pages 723-745, August.
- David Stephens & Martin Crowder, 2004. "Bayesian analysis of discrete time warranty data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 53(1), pages 195-217.
- Wu, Shaomin & Li, Huiqing, 2007. "Warranty cost analysis for products with a dormant state," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(3), pages 1285-1293, November.
- Yeo, Wee Meng & Yuan, Xue-Ming, 2009. "Optimal warranty policies for systems with imperfect repair," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(1), pages 187-197, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:213:y:2011:i:1:p:196-204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.