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An Empirical Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Time Series Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Nesreen Ahmed
  • Amir Atiya
  • Neamat El Gayar
  • Hisham El-Shishiny

Abstract

In this work we present a large scale comparison study for the major machine learning models for time series forecasting. Specifically, we apply the models on the monthly M3 time series competition data (around a thousand time series). There have been very few, if any, large scale comparison studies for machine learning models for the regression or the time series forecasting problems, so we hope this study would fill this gap. The models considered are multilayer perceptron, Bayesian neural networks, radial basis functions, generalized regression neural networks (also called kernel regression), K-nearest neighbor regression, CART regression trees, support vector regression, and Gaussian processes. The study reveals significant differences between the different methods. The best two methods turned out to be the multilayer perceptron and the Gaussian process regression. In addition to model comparisons, we have tested different preprocessing methods and have shown that they have different impacts on the performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Nesreen Ahmed & Amir Atiya & Neamat El Gayar & Hisham El-Shishiny, 2010. "An Empirical Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Time Series Forecasting," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 594-621.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:29:y:2010:i:5-6:p:594-621
    DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2010.481556
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Green, Gareth & Richards, Timothy, 2016. "Interpreting Results of Demand Estimation from Machine Learning Models," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 236147, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Cui, Can & Wu, Teresa & Hu, Mengqi & Weir, Jeffery D. & Li, Xiwang, 2016. "Short-term building energy model recommendation system: A meta-learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 251-263.
    3. Kock, Anders Bredahl & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2014. "Forecasting performances of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007–2009," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 616-631.
    4. Andrawis, Robert R. & Atiya, Amir F. & El-Shishiny, Hisham, 2011. "Forecast combinations of computational intelligence and linear models for the NN5 time series forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 672-688, July.
    5. Fischer, Thomas & Krauss, Christopher & Treichel, Alex, 2018. "Machine learning for time series forecasting - a simulation study," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2018, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    6. Advait Sarkar & Neal Lathia & Cecilia Mascolo, 2015. "Comparing cities’ cycling patterns using online shared bicycle maps," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 541-559, July.
    7. repec:eee:touman:v:48:y:2015:i:c:p:64-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A regional perspective on the accuracy of machine learning forecasts of tourism demand based on data characteristics”," AQR Working Papers 201802, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Apr 2018.
    9. repec:eee:apmaco:v:330:y:2018:i:c:p:170-184 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2016. "Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain’s regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 341-357, August.
    11. Tzai-Shuen Chen, 2018. "Evaluating Conditional Cash Transfer Policies with Machine Learning Methods," Papers 1803.06401, arXiv.org.
    12. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "“Regional tourism demand forecasting with machine learning models: Gaussian process regression vs. neural network models in a multiple-input multiple-output setting"," IREA Working Papers 201701, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2017.
    13. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A regional perspective on the accuracy of machine learning forecasts of tourism demand based on data characteristics”," IREA Working Papers 201805, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    14. Wu, Shaomin & Akbarov, Artur, 2011. "Support vector regression for warranty claim forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 196-204, August.
    15. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Imanol Arrieta-ibarra & Ignacio N. Lobato, 2015. "Testing for Predictability in Financial Returns Using Statistical Learning Procedures," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 672-686, September.
    16. repec:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1797-0 is not listed on IDEAS

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