IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v232y2023ics0165176523003786.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pricing the net benefits of a public loan guarantee scheme in a developing market

Author

Listed:
  • Topaloğlu-Bozkurt, Ayça
  • Tanyeri-Günsür, Başak

Abstract

Turkish credit markets experienced a liquidity crunch following the Brexit referendum in June, the attempted coup in July, and the US election in November of 2016. The government announced a 12.5-fold increase in the Treasury support for the Credit Guarantee Fund to alleviate the credit squeeze. We investigate whether investor reactions to the announcement of the increase in Treasury support in KGF are in line with the stated aim of policymakers. Firms listed on Borsa İstanbul averaged 5.72 percent cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) in the 9-day window around the announcement. Investors anticipated the benefits from public guarantees would outweigh the costs. The positive and significant CARs suggest that the information released in the announcement, in line with the program aims, positively affected investor expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Topaloğlu-Bozkurt, Ayça & Tanyeri-Günsür, Başak, 2023. "Pricing the net benefits of a public loan guarantee scheme in a developing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:232:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523003786
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176523003786
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111353?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    3. Nilgun Fescioglu-Unver & Başak Tanyeri, 2013. "A comparison of artificial neural network and multinomial logit models in predicting mergers," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 712-720.
    4. Beck, Thorsten & Klapper, Leora F. & Mendoza, Juan Carlos, 2010. "The typology of partial credit guarantee funds around the world," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 10-25, April.
    5. Günsür, Başak Tanyeri & Bulut, Emre, 2022. "Investor reactions to major events in the sub-prime mortgage crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    6. Ufuk Akcigit & Unal Seven & Ibrahim Yarba & Fatih Yilmaz, 2021. "Firm-Level Impact of Credit Guarantees: Evidence from Turkish Credit Guarantee Fund," Working Papers 2110, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. M. Max Croce & Howard Kung & Thien T. Nguyen & Lukas Schmid, 2012. "Fiscal Policies and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2635-2672.
    8. Hasan Burak Arslan & Serif Aziz Simsir, 2016. "Measuring Takeover Premiums in Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions: Insights from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 188-203, January.
    9. Honohan, Patrick, 2010. "Partial credit guarantees: Principles and practice," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, April.
    10. Afonso, António & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "What are the effects of fiscal policy on asset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1871-1890, July.
    11. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Tanyeri, Basak & Tehranian, Hassan, 2011. "The effect of merger anticipation on bidder and target firm announcement period returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 595-611, June.
    12. Thien Nguyen & Lukas Schmid & Howard Kung & Mariano Croce, 2012. "Fiscal Policies and Asset Prices," 2012 Meeting Papers 565, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Lei Hu & Junying Han & Qiang Zhang, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks on Stock Markets: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(8), pages 1856-1871, June.
    14. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2005. "Do Lenders Favor Politically Connected Firms? Rent Provision in an Emerging Financial Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(4), pages 1371-1411.
    15. Yılmaz, Işıl Sevilay & Tanyeri, Başak, 2016. "Global Merger and Acquisition (M&A) activity: 1992–2011," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 110-117.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anthony M. Diercks & William Waller, 2017. "Taxes and the Fed : Theory and Evidence from Equities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Marcela Eslava & Xavier Freixas, 2021. "Public Development Banks and Credit Market Imperfections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1121-1149, August.
    3. Karamysheva, Madina, 2022. "How do fiscal adjustments work? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Nicolas Caramp & Dejanir H. Silva, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Wealth Effects: The Role of Risk and Heterogeneity," Working Papers 341, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    5. Thomas Url, 2018. "Die Folgen staatlicher Wechselbürgschaften und Beteiligungsgarantien für Inlandsbeschäftigung und Leistungsbilanz," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61057, April.
    6. Cowan, Kevin & Drexler, Alejandro & Yañez, Álvaro, 2015. "The effect of credit guarantees on credit availability and delinquency rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 98-110.
    7. Yılmaz, Işıl Sevilay & Tanyeri, Başak, 2016. "Global Merger and Acquisition (M&A) activity: 1992–2011," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 110-117.
    8. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa, 2020. "Stock Market Reactions to Legislated Tax Changes: Evidence from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202047, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    9. Croce, M.M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S. & Schmid, L., 2019. "Government debt and the returns to innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 205-225.
    10. Cowling, Marc & Ughetto, Elisa & Lee, Neil, 2018. "The innovation debt penalty: Cost of debt, loan default, and the effects of a public loan guarantee on high-tech firms," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 166-176.
    11. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Alexandre Corhay, 2017. "Fiscal Discount Rates and Debt Maturity," 2017 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Gao, Lin & Hitzemann, Steffen & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Xu, Lai, 2022. "Oil volatility risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 456-491.
    13. Matteo F. Ghilardi & Roy Zilberman, 2024. "Macroeconomic Effects of Dividend Taxation with Investment Credit Limits," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 409-448.
    14. Jean-Yves Filbien & Fabien Labondance, 2012. "Reactions Des Marches D’Actions De La Zone Euro Aux Annonces Non Anticipees De La Bce," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 55(2), pages 179-204.
    15. He, Lerong & Wan, Hong & Zhou, Xin, 2014. "How are political connections valued in China? Evidence from market reaction to CEO succession," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 141-152.
    16. Maria Fotaki & Apostolos Kourtis & Raphael Markellos, 2023. "Human resources turnover as an asset acquisition and divestiture process: Evidence from the U.K. football industry," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2696-2711, July.
    17. Xiaoji Lin & Fan Yang & Frederico Belo, 2014. "External Equity Financing Costs, Financial Flows, and Asset Prices," 2014 Meeting Papers 863, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Xie, Sujuan & Lin, Bingxuan & Li, Jingjing, 2022. "Political Control, Corporate Governance and Firm Value: The Case of China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    19. Veljko Fotak, 2016. "A Spark from the Public Sector: Co-lending by Government-owned and Private-sector Lenders," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1624, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    20. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public guarantee schemes; Credit guarantee funds; Developing markets; Event study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:232:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523003786. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.