IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolec/v236y2025ics0921800925001491.html

An equation for global energy efficiency gains in the long-run

Author

Listed:
  • Bercegol, Hervé

Abstract

This work focuses on the global economic efficiency of energy use, defined as the ratio at world scale of Gross Domestic Product to Final Energy Consumption, including food for humans and feed for draft animals. With a simple hypothesis of energy efficiency gains being proportional to economic activity, it evidences that for the last two centuries energy efficiency grew on average exponentially with the cumulative energy consumption. By extrapolating this relationship, I estimate that the global economic efficiency of energy doubled or so from the Neolithic transition up to 1820, whereas it roughly tripled since then. Concerning the present energy transition, the International Energy Agency's scenario for “Net zero emission” by 2050 would reverse a recent slowdown in efficiency gains and retrieve the trend of the last two centuries, eventually overpassing it. The equation thus provides a historical reference for analyzing the past and calibrating future energy consumption scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Bercegol, Hervé, 2025. "An equation for global energy efficiency gains in the long-run," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:236:y:2025:i:c:s0921800925001491
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108666
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800925001491
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108666?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Atse Louwen & Wilfried G. J. H. M. van Sark & André P. C. Faaij & Ruud E. I. Schropp, 2016. "Re-assessment of net energy production and greenhouse gas emissions avoidance after 40 years of photovoltaics development," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    4. Stephan B. Bruns, Christian Gross and David I. Stern, 2014. "Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    5. Hasret Sahin & A. A. Solomon & Arman Aghahosseini & Christian Breyer, 2024. "Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Paolo Malanima, 2020. "The limiting factor: energy, growth, and divergence, 1820–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(2), pages 486-512, May.
    7. Tripathy, Prajukta & Jena, Pabitra Kumar & Mishra, Bikash Ranjan, 2024. "Systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis of energy efficiency," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    8. Sousa, Tânia & Brockway, Paul E. & Cullen, Jonathan M. & Henriques, Sofia Teives & Miller, Jack & Serrenho, André Cabrera & Domingos, Tiago, 2017. "The Need for Robust, Consistent Methods in Societal Exergy Accounting," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 11-21.
    9. Popkova, Elena G. & Sergi, Bruno S., 2021. "Energy efficiency in leading emerging and developed countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    10. Bercegol, Hervé & Benisty, Henri, 2022. "An energy-based macroeconomic model validated by global historical series since 1820," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    11. Rodríguez, M. & Teotónio, C. & Roebeling, P. & Fortes, P., 2023. "Targeting energy savings? Better on primary than final energy and less on intensity metrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    12. Aramendia, Emmanuel & Brockway, Paul E. & Pizzol, Massimo & Heun, Matthew K., 2021. "Moving from final to useful stage in energy-economy analysis: A critical assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    13. Grażyna Szustak & Piotr Dąbrowski & Witold Gradoń & Łukasz Szewczyk, 2021. "The Relationship between Energy Production and GDP: Evidence from Selected European Economies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Brockway, Paul E. & Sorrell, Steve & Semieniuk, Gregor & Heun, Matthew Kuperus & Court, Victor, 2021. "Energy efficiency and economy-wide rebound effects: A review of the evidence and its implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Tostes, Bernardo & Henriques, Sofia T. & Brockway, Paul E. & Heun, Matthew Kuperus & Domingos, Tiago & Sousa, Tânia, 2024. "On the right track? Energy use, carbon emissions, and intensities of world rail transportation, 1840–2020," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 367(C).
    16. Ian Morris, 2013. "The Measure of Civilization: How Social Development Decides the Fate of Nations," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9830.
    17. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    18. Helmut Haberl, 2001. "The Energetic Metabolism of Societies: Part II: Empirical Examples," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 5(2), pages 71-88, April.
    19. Amendola, Marco & Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea & Sapio, Alessandro, 2024. "Energy efficiency policies in an agent-based macroeconomic model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 116-132.
    20. Aljoša Slameršak & Giorgos Kallis & Daniel W. O’Neill, 2022. "Energy requirements and carbon emissions for a low-carbon energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    21. Helmut Haberl, 2001. "The Energetic Metabolism of Societies Part I: Accounting Concepts," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 5(1), pages 11-33, January.
    22. Paul Steenwyk & Matthew Kuperus Heun & Paul Brockway & Tânia Sousa & Sofia Henriques, 2022. "The Contributions of Muscle and Machine Work to Land and Labor Productivity in World Agriculture Since 1800," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 1-17, June.
    23. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
    24. Hervé Bercegol & H. Benisty, 2022. "An energy-based macroeconomic model validated by global historical series since 1820," Post-Print cea-03451983, HAL.
    25. Astrid Kander & Paolo Malanima & Paul Warde, 2013. "Power to the People: Energy in Europe over the Last Five Centuries," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10138.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Steenwyk & Matthew Kuperus Heun & Paul Brockway & Tânia Sousa & Sofia Henriques, 2022. "The Contributions of Muscle and Machine Work to Land and Labor Productivity in World Agriculture Since 1800," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Santos, João & Sousa, Tânia & Serrenho, André & Domingos, Tiago, 2025. "An aggregate price for energy services: Useful exergy as an intermediate flow in a two-sector model of the economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    3. Holger Strulik, 2014. "Knowledge And Growth In The Very Long Run," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(2), pages 459-482, May.
    4. Pinto, Ricardo & Henriques, Sofia T. & Brockway, Paul E. & Heun, Matthew Kuperus & Sousa, Tânia, 2023. "The rise and stall of world electricity efficiency:1900–2017, results and insights for the renewables transition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    5. Solomon, A.A. & Sahin, Hasret & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "The pitfall in designing future electrical power systems without considering energy return on investment in planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    6. McDermott, John, 2002. "Development Dynamics: Economic Integration and the Demographic Transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 371-409, December.
    7. Bercegol, Hervé & Benisty, Henri, 2022. "An energy-based macroeconomic model validated by global historical series since 1820," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    8. Elgin, Ceyhun, 2012. "A Theory Of Economic Development With Endogenous Fertility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 686-705, November.
    9. Tappeiner, Gottfried & Hauser, Christoph & Walde, Janette, 2008. "Regional knowledge spillovers: Fact or artifact?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 861-874, June.
    10. Pellegris, Alban & Court, Victor, 2025. "The rise and fall of neoliberalism: Evidences from an ecological and regulationist analysis of France (1960–2020)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    11. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1999. "Growth and the public sector: a critique of the critics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 337-358, June.
    12. Broadberry, Stephen & Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2017. "Anonymity, efficiency wages and technological progress," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 379-394.
    13. Sina T. Ates & Felipe E. Saffie, 2013. "Project Heterogeneity and Growth: The Impact of Selection," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    14. Blair Fix, 2019. "Energy, hierarchy and the origin of inequality," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-32, April.
    15. Zsuzsanna Csereklyei & M. d. Mar Rubio-Varas & David I. Stern, 2016. "Energy and Economic Growth: The Stylized Facts," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(2), pages 223-256, April.
    16. Klaus Prettner, 2012. "Public education, technological change and economic prosperity: semi-endogenous growth revisited," PGDA Working Papers 9012, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    17. Ryan, Michael P., 2010. "Patent Incentives, Technology Markets, and Public-Private Bio-Medical Innovation Networks in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1082-1093, August.
    18. Marull, Joan & Pino, Joan & Melero, Yolanda & Tello, Enric, 2023. "Using thermodynamics to understand the links between energy, information, structure and biodiversity in a human-transformed landscape," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    19. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
    20. Zeng, Jinli, 2003. "Reexamining the interaction between innovation and capital accumulation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 541-560, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:236:y:2025:i:c:s0921800925001491. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.