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An integrated biophysical and economic modeling framework for long-term sustainability analysis: the HARMONEY model

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  • King, Carey W.

Abstract

This paper derives a long-term dynamic growth model that endogenously links biophysical and economic variables in a stock-flow consistent manner. The two industrial sector HARMONEY (Human And Resources with MONEY) model enables exploration of interdependencies among resource extraction rate and depletion; the accumulation of population, capital, and debt; and the distribution of money flows within the economy. Using a post-Keynesian economic framework, we find that wage share declines after the model reaches a constant per capita resource extraction rate, with the level of investment and markup on costs determining the rate of decline. This pattern is consistent with data for the United States. Thus, the model framework enables realistic investigation of trade-offs between economic distribution, size, and resources consumption between sectors as well as between labor and capital. These trade-offs are core to the debates regarding environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. This model serves as a platform upon which to add features to explore long-term sustainability questions such as a transition to low-carbon energy.

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  • King, Carey W., 2020. "An integrated biophysical and economic modeling framework for long-term sustainability analysis: the HARMONEY model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:169:y:2020:i:c:s0921800919302034
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106464
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    1. Jiabin Chen & Shaobo Wen, 2020. "Implications of Energy Intensity Ratio for Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-13, August.
    2. Jason C. Bradford, 2020. "The Future Is Rural: Societal Adaptation to Energy Descent," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 79(3), pages 751-798, May.
    3. Carey W. King, 2021. "Interdependence of Growth, Structure, Size and Resource Consumption During an Economic Growth Cycle," Papers 2106.02512, arXiv.org.
    4. Carey W. King, 2022. "Interdependence of Growth, Structure, Size and Resource Consumption During an Economic Growth Cycle," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, March.
    5. Jacques, Pierre & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Yilmaz, Devrim & Jeanmart, Hervé & Godin, Antoine, 2023. "Assessing the economic consequences of an energy transition through a biophysical stock-flow consistent model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    6. Jackson, Andrew & Jackson, Tim, 2021. "Modelling energy transition risk: The impact of declining energy return on investment (EROI)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    7. Aramendia, Emmanuel & Brockway, Paul E. & Pizzol, Massimo & Heun, Matthew K., 2021. "Moving from final to useful stage in energy-economy analysis: A critical assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).

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