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Evolution of price effects after one-day abnormal returns in the US stock market

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  • Plastun, Alex
  • Sibande, Xolani
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Wohar, Mark E.

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of price effects after one-day abnormal returns and their evolution in the US stock market, using Dow Jones Index over the period 1890–2018. We utilise several statistical tests and econometric methods (the modified cumulative abnormal return approach, regression analysis with dummy variables, R/S analysis (Hurst, 1951), and the trading simulation approach). The results suggest that a strong momentum effect between 1940 and 1980 after a day of positive abnormal returns was present in the US stock market, and it was exploitable for profit. However, after the 1980s this has since disappeared. Overall, price effects after one-day abnormal returns during the analysed period tend to be unstable in terms of their strength and direction (momentum or contrarian effect). Nowadays, the evidence for the price effects after one-day abnormal returns in the US stock market is weak. Our results, therefore, are consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (Lo, 2004).

Suggested Citation

  • Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Evolution of price effects after one-day abnormal returns in the US stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:57:y:2021:i:c:s1062940821000383
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101405
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    Cited by:

    1. Plastun, Alex & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Price effects after one-day abnormal returns in developed and emerging markets: ESG versus traditional indices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Weng Hoe Lam & Weng Siew Lam & Kah Fai Liew & Pei Fun Lee, 2023. "Decision Analysis on the Financial Performance of Companies Using Integrated Entropy-Fuzzy TOPSIS Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Alex Plastun & Xolani Sibande & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2022. "Price Effects After One-Day Abnormal Returns and Crises in the Stock Markets," Working Papers 202222, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overreaction; Momentum effect; Contrarian effect; Abnormal returns; Stock market; Dow Jones Industrial Average Index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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