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Non-linearities in euro area inflation persistence

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  • Kanellopoulos, Nikolaos C.
  • Koutroulis, Aristotelis G.

Abstract

This paper investigates the nature of inflation dynamics with a special focus on inflation persistence. Using data from euro area member-states we estimate dynamic non-linear panel models addressing in detail econometric issues concerning unobserved heterogeneity, genuine state dependence, and the initial conditions problem. After controlling for observed and unobserved heterogeneity, our results suggest that the degree of inflation persistence is genuine and varies depending on whether the inflation rate is too high, within the range of ECB's target of price stability, too low or negative. This implies that policies to stabilize inflation in the short run will have longer-run effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Kanellopoulos, Nikolaos C. & Koutroulis, Aristotelis G., 2016. "Non-linearities in euro area inflation persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 116-123.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:59:y:2016:i:c:p:116-123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.07.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Geronikolaou, George & Spyromitros, Eleftherios & Tsintzos, Panagiotis, 2020. "Progressive taxation and human capital as determinants of inflation persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 82-97.
    3. Tule, Moses K. & Salisu, Afees A. & Ebuh, Godday U., 2020. "A test for inflation persistence in Nigeria using fractional integration & fractional cointegration techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 225-237.
    4. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2018. "Inflation in Europe after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 202-213.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation persistence; Non-linearities; Philips curve; Random effects ordered probit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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