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A stochastic dynamic model of trade and growth: Convergence and diversification

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  • Chatterjee, Partha
  • Shukayev, Malik

Abstract

There is a growing literature that studies the properties of models that combine international trade and neoclassical growth theory, but mostly in a deterministic setting. In this paper we introduce uncertainty in a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model and characterize the equilibrium of a small open economy in such an environment. We show that, when trade is balanced period-by-period, the per capita output and consumption of a small open economy converge to an invariant distribution that is independent of the initial wealth. Further, at the invariant distribution, there are periods in which the small economy diversifies. Numerical simulations show that the speed of convergence increases with the size of the shocks. In the limit, when there is no uncertainty, there is no convergence and countries may specialize permanently. The paper highlights the role of market incompleteness, as a result of the period-by-period trade balance, in this setup. Through an analytical example we also illustrate the importance of country specific risk in delivering our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatterjee, Partha & Shukayev, Malik, 2012. "A stochastic dynamic model of trade and growth: Convergence and diversification," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 416-432.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:3:p:416-432
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2011.11.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Takashi Kamihigashi & John Stachurski, 2011. "Existence, Stability and Computation of Stationary Distributions: An Extension of the Hopenhayn-Prescott Theorem," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-32, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    2. Partha Sen & Koji Shimomura, 2017. "Convergence and Overtaking in a Dynamic two Country Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 107-124, February.
    3. Takashi Kamihigashi & John Stachurski, 2011. "Stability of Stationary Distributions in Monotone Economies," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2011-561, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    4. Satoshi Honma & Yushi Yoshida, 2018. "Convergence in pollution terms of trade," Discussion Papers CRR Discussion Paper Series A: General 48, Shiga University, Faculty of Economics,Center for Risk Research.
    5. Honma, Satoshi & Yoshida, Yushi, 2017. "Convergence in pollution terms of trade," MPRA Paper 78810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sen, Partha, 2015. "Uncertain lifetimes and convergence in a two-country Heckscher–Ohlin model," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 14-20.
    7. Stachurski, John & Kamihigashi, Takashi, 2014. "Stochastic stability in monotone economies," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), May.
    8. Takashi Kamihigashi & John Stachurski, 2012. "Existence, Uniqueness and Stability of Stationary Distributions: An Extension of the Hopenhayn-Prescott Theorem," Discussion Paper Series DP2012-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; International trade; Heckscher–Ohlin; Stochastic growth theory; Convergence; Diversification; Incomplete markets; Risk;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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