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A Stochastic Dynamic Model of Trade and Growth: Convergence and Diversi?cation

  • Partha Chatterjee

    (FMS, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007)

  • Malik Shukayev

    (Bank of Canada)

There is a growing literature that studies the properties of models that combine international trade and neoclassical growth theory, but mostly in a de- terministic setting. In this paper we introduce uncertainty in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model and characterize the equilibrium of a small open economy in such an environment. We show that, when trade is balanced period-by-period, the per capita output and consumption of a small open economy converge to an invariant distribution that is independent of the initial wealth. Further, at the invariant distribution, there are periods in which the small economy diversi?es. Numerical simulations show that the speed of convergence increases with the size of the shocks. In the limit, when there is no uncertainty, there is no convergence and countries may specialize permanently. The paper highlights the role of market incompleteness, as a result of the period-by-period trade balance, in this setup. Through an analytical example we also illustrate the importance of country speci?c risk in delivering our results.

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Paper provided by Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam in its series Working Papers with number 07.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dpc:wpaper:0713
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  1. Eric W. Bond & Kathleen Trask & Ping Wang, 2003. "Factor Accumulation and Trade: Dynamic Comparative Advantage with Endogenous Physical and Human Capital," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1041-1060, 08.
  2. Zhiqi Chen, 1992. "Long-Run Equilibria in a Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 923-43, November.
  3. Findlay, Ronald, 1970. "Factor Proportions and Comparative Advantage in the Long Run," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 27-34, Jan.-Feb..
  4. Claustre Bajona & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Trade, growth, and convergence in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model," Staff Report 378, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Chatterjee, Partha & Shukayev, Malik, 2008. "Note on positive lower bound of capital in the stochastic growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2137-2147, July.
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  11. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2000. "Paths of development for early- and late-bloomers in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model," Staff Report 256, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Deardorff, A.V., 1997. "Rich and Poor Countries in Neoclassical Trade and Growth," Working Papers 402, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  13. Smith, Alasdair, 1984. "Capital theory and trade theory," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 289-324 Elsevier.
  14. Manjira Datta, . "Optimal Accumulation in a Small Open Economy with Technological Uncertainty," Working Papers 2132840, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
  15. Alejandro Cuñat & Marco Maffezzoli, . "Heckscher-Ohlin Business Cycles," Working Papers 210, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  16. Fisher, Eric O'N., 1995. "Growth, trade, and international transfers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 143-158, August.
  17. Richard H. Clarida, 1984. "Consumption, Liquidity Constraints and Asset Accumulation in the Presence of Random Income Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 705R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1985.
  18. Mussa, Michael, 1978. "Dynamic Adjustment in the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 775-91, October.
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