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A two-wave death story: fentanyl overdoses in the US, bullets in Mexico

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  • Cruz, Iván López
  • Torrens, Gustavo

Abstract

We establish a link between the fentanyl crisis in the US starting in 2013 and a second wave of drug-related violence in Mexico. We argue that the demand for fentanyl from the US pushed emerging Pacific-based Mexican drug trafficking organizations to reoptimize their trafficking routes, leading to new clashes and violence, often in locations barely affected by the first wave of violence caused by the 2007 Mexican War on Drugs. Exploiting the differential impact that the Mexican War on Drugs and the demand of fentanyl had on different municipalities, we estimate that fentanyl caused about 20 additional homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.

Suggested Citation

  • Cruz, Iván López & Torrens, Gustavo, 2026. "A two-wave death story: fentanyl overdoses in the US, bullets in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:178:y:2026:i:c:s0304387825000938
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103542
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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