IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/corfin/v30y2015icp245-256.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What premiums do target shareholders expect? Explaining negative returns upon offer announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Ang, James S.
  • Ismail, Ahmad K.

Abstract

We find, in a sample of 7581 merger offer announcements from 1990 to 2013, shareholders of 1283 (or 17%) target firms responded to the offer with negative market returns. These investors were disappointed at the offer, despite the price premium. To explain their disappointment, one must understand how target shareholders form expectations of premium to be received. We use a novel empirical design to find the relative weights of the rational vs. behavioral factors underlying the process of expectation formation. The estimated expected premiums are shown to have predictive power in the subsamples of both the positive and negative market responses. We also compare how the weights of the expectation factors change under different market conditions: hot vs. cold M&A regimes, bull vs. bear stock market, financial crisis vs. non-crisis periods, and dotcom bubble vs. no bubble.

Suggested Citation

  • Ang, James S. & Ismail, Ahmad K., 2015. "What premiums do target shareholders expect? Explaining negative returns upon offer announcements," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 245-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:30:y:2015:i:c:p:245-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2014.12.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929119914001679
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2014.12.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mitchell, Mark L & Stafford, Erik, 2000. "Managerial Decisions and Long-Term Stock Price Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 287-329, July.
    2. Cen, Ling & Hilary, Gilles & Wei, K. C. John, 2013. "The Role of Anchoring Bias in the Equity Market: Evidence from Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 47-76, February.
    3. Ye, Pengfei, 2014. "Does the Disposition Effect Matter in Corporate Takeovers? Evidence from Institutional Investors of Target Companies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 221-248, February.
    4. Goldfarb, Brent & Kirsch, David & Miller, David A., 2007. "Was there too little entry during the Dot Com Era?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 100-144, October.
    5. Patell, Jm, 1976. "Corporate Forecasts Of Earnings Per Share And Stock-Price Behavior - Empirical Tests," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 246-276.
    6. Chip Heath & Steven Huddart & Mark Lang, 1999. "Psychological Factors and Stock Option Exercise," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 601-627.
    7. Ming Dong & David Hirshleifer & Scott Richardson & Siew Hong Teoh, 2006. "Does Investor Misvaluation Drive the Takeover Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 725-762, April.
    8. Tim Loughran & Jay R. Ritter, 2002. "Why Don't Issuers Get Upset About Leaving Money on the Table in IPOs?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 413-444, March.
    9. Andrea Frazzini, 2006. "The Disposition Effect and Underreaction to News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 2017-2046, August.
    10. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2001. "What Makes Investors Trade?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 589-616, April.
    11. Zoran Ivković & James Poterba & Scott Weisbenner, 2005. "Tax-Motivated Trading by Individual Investors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1605-1630, December.
    12. Arkes, Hal R. & Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling & Lim, Sonya, 2008. "Reference point adaptation: Tests in the domain of security trading," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 67-81, January.
    13. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
    14. Arkes, Hal R. & Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling & Lim, Sonya S., 2010. "A cross-cultural study of reference point adaptation: Evidence from China, Korea, and the US," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 99-111, July.
    15. Eckbo, B. Espen & Langohr, Herwig, 1989. "Information disclosure, method of payment, and takeover premiums : Public and private tender offers in France," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 363-403.
    16. Thomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang, 2004. "The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 2145-2176, October.
    17. Degeorge, Francois & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1999. "Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(1), pages 1-33, January.
    18. Justin Birru, 2015. "Editor's Choice Confusion of Confusions: A Test of the Disposition Effect and Momentum," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(7), pages 1849-1873.
    19. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Beltratti, Andrea & Stulz, René M., 2012. "The credit crisis around the globe: Why did some banks perform better?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 1-17.
    21. Hyuk Choe & Yunsung Eom, 2009. "The disposition effect and investment performance in the futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 496-522, June.
    22. Baker, Malcolm & Pan, Xin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2012. "The effect of reference point prices on mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 49-71.
    23. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    24. Steven Huddart & Mark Lang & Michelle H. Yetman, 2009. "Volume and Price Patterns Around a Stock's 52-Week Highs and Lows: Theory and Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(1), pages 16-31, January.
    25. Jeffry Netter & Mike Stegemoller & M. Babajide Wintoki, 2011. "Implications of Data Screens on Merger and Acquisition Analysis: A Large Sample Study of Mergers and Acquisitions from 1992 to 2009," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(7), pages 2316-2357.
    26. Bradley, Michael & Desai, Anand & Kim, E. Han, 1988. "Synergistic gains from corporate acquisitions and their division between the stockholders of target and acquiring firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-40, May.
    27. Allen M. Poteshman & Vitaly Serbin, 2003. "Clearly Irrational Financial Market Behavior: Evidence from the Early Exercise of Exchange Traded Stock Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 37-70, February.
    28. Mulherin, J. Harold & Boone, Audra L., 2000. "Comparing acquisitions and divestitures," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 117-139, July.
    29. Moeller, Sara B. & Schlingemann, Frederik P. & Stulz, Rene M., 2004. "Firm size and the gains from acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 201-228, August.
    30. Weber, Martin & Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184, January.
    31. Alexander Ljungqvist & William J. Wilhelm, 2005. "Does Prospect Theory Explain IPO Market Behavior?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1759-1790, August.
    32. Travlos, Nickolaos G, 1987. "Corporate Takeover Bids, Methods of Payment, and Bidding Firms' Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 943-963, September.
    33. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    34. Houston, Joel F. & James, Christopher M. & Ryngaert, Michael D., 2001. "Where do merger gains come from? Bank mergers from the perspective of insiders and outsiders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 285-331, May.
    35. Kaplan, Steven N & Weisbach, Michael S, 1992. "The Success of Acquisitions: Evidence from Divestitures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 107-138, March.
    36. Manel Baucells & Martin Weber & Frank Welfens, 2011. "Reference-Point Formation and Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 506-519, March.
    37. Eckbo, B. Espen & Thorburn, Karin S., 2000. "Gains to Bidder Firms Revisited: Domestic and Foreign Acquisitions in Canada," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 1-25, March.
    38. Weitzel, Utz & Kling, Gerhard, 2012. "Sold below value? Why some targets accept very low and even negative takeover premiums," MPRA Paper 42832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Ben Marshall & Rachael Cahan, 2005. "Is the 52-week high momentum strategy profitable outside the US?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(18), pages 1259-1267.
    40. Raghavendra Rau, P. & Vermaelen, Theo, 1998. "Glamour, value and the post-acquisition performance of acquiring firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 223-253, August.
    41. Brad M. Barber & Yi-Tsung Lee & Yu-Jane Liu & Terrance Odean, 2009. "Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 609-632, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Ying & Lahr, Henry, 2017. "Takeover law to protect shareholders: Increasing efficiency or merely redistributing gains?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 288-315.
    2. Marks, Joseph M. & Musumeci, Jim, 2017. "Misspecification in event studies," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 333-341.
    3. Ismail, Ahmad & Mavis, Christos P., 2022. "A new method for measuring CEO overconfidence: Evidence from acquisitions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Smith, Garrett C. & Coy, Jeffrey M. & Spieler, Andrew C., 2019. "Cross-border transactions, mergers and the inconsistency of international reference points," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 14-21.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anastasia Stepanova & Vladislav Savelyev & Malika Shaikhutdinova, 2018. "The Anchoring Effect in Mergers and Acquisitions: Evidence from an Emerging Market," HSE Working papers WP BRP 63/FE/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Lee, Eunju & Piqueira, Natalia, 2017. "Short selling around the 52-week and historical highs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 75-101.
    3. Ma, Qingzhong & Whidbee, David A. & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Acquirer reference prices and acquisition performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 175-199.
    4. Baker, Malcolm & Pan, Xin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2012. "The effect of reference point prices on mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 49-71.
    5. He, Wen & Li, Yan, 2020. "Comparing with the average: Reference points and market reactions to above-average earnings surprises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    6. Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2005. "Prospect theory, mental accounting, and momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 311-339, November.
    7. Manel Baucells & Martin Weber & Frank Welfens, 2011. "Reference-Point Formation and Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 506-519, March.
    8. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten & Meyer, Steffen & Hackethal, Andreas, 2019. "Taming models of prospect theory in the wild? Estimation of Vlcek and Hens (2011)," SAFE Working Paper Series 146, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2019.
    9. Malcolm Baker & Xin Pan & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2009. "A Reference Point Theory of Mergers and Acquisitions," NBER Working Papers 15551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Juwon Jang & Eunju Lee, 2021. "Do record earnings affect market reactions to earnings news?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1259-1287, May.
    11. Andrey Golubov & Dimitris Petmezas & Nickolaos G. Travlos, 2013. "Empirical mergers and acquisitions research: a review of methods, evidence and managerial implications," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 12, pages 287-313, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Bernard, Sabine & Loos, Benjamin & Weber, Martin, 2021. "The disposition effect in boom and bust markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 305, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    13. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1533-1570, Elsevier.
    14. Kanungo, Rama Prasad, 2021. "Uncertainty of M&As under asymmetric estimation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 774-793.
    15. Martynova, M. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2005. "Takeover Waves : Triggers, Performance and Motives," Discussion Paper 2005-029, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    16. Mei‐Chen Lin, 2018. "The effect of 52 week highs and lows on analyst stock recommendations," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 375-422, November.
    17. Martynova, Marina & Renneboog, Luc, 2008. "A century of corporate takeovers: What have we learned and where do we stand?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2148-2177, October.
    18. Hincapié-Salazar, Juliana & Agudelo, Diego A., 2020. "Is the disposition effect in bonds as strong as in stocks? Evidence from an emerging market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    19. Martynova, M., 2006. "The market for corporate control and corporate governance regulation in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 8651e281-4914-41f2-ac14-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Baucells, Manel & Weber, Martin & Welfens, Frank, 2007. "Reference Point Formation Over Time: A Weighting Function Approach," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-43, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Takeovers; Prospect Theory; Behavioral bias; Disappointment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:30:y:2015:i:c:p:245-256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcorpfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.