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Impact of transition to a low carbon power system on the GB gas network


  • Qadrdan, Meysam
  • Chaudry, Modassar
  • Jenkins, Nick
  • Baruah, Pranab
  • Eyre, Nick


The reliance of Great Britain power generation on the gas network makes it critical to consider the future availability and cost of gas in planning the expansion of the power system. A combined gas and electricity network planning model was used to investigate impacts of various low carbon strategies on regional expansion of the Great Britain gas network out to the 2050s. A number of long term energy supply and demand strategies covering a range of plausible investment policies for Great Britain gas and electricity systems were explored. Reliance of Great Britain on gas imports was projected to vary from 84%, in an energy system with significant electrification of heat and transport sectors and large capacity of nuclear generation, to 94% in a business as usual case. Extensive investment in Liquefied Natural Gas import facilities at Milford Haven and the Isle of Grain was shown to compensate for reduction of indigenous gas supplies. Exploitation of shale gas in north England was shown to reduce the gas dependency of Great Britain in the business as usual case to 74%. Electrification of the heat and transport sectors combined with exploitation of shale gas in Great Britain could reduce import dependency to below 10% by 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Qadrdan, Meysam & Chaudry, Modassar & Jenkins, Nick & Baruah, Pranab & Eyre, Nick, 2015. "Impact of transition to a low carbon power system on the GB gas network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 1-12.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:151:y:2015:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.04.056

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    2. Qadrdan, Meysam & Cheng, Meng & Wu, Jianzhong & Jenkins, Nick, 2017. "Benefits of demand-side response in combined gas and electricity networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 360-369.
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    7. Clegg, Stephen & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2019. "Integrated electricity-heat-gas modelling and assessment, with applications to the Great Britain system. Part I: High-resolution spatial and temporal heat demand modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 180-190.
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    13. Nunes, Juliana Barbosa & Mahmoudi, Nadali & Saha, Tapan Kumar & Chattopadhyay, Debabrata, 2018. "A stochastic integrated planning of electricity and natural gas networks for Queensland, Australia considering high renewable penetration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 539-553.
    14. Qadrdan, Meysam & Fazeli, Reza & Jenkins, Nick & Strbac, Goran & Sansom, Robert, 2019. "Gas and electricity supply implications of decarbonising heat sector in GB," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 50-60.
    15. Zhang, Yachao & Le, Jian & Zheng, Feng & Zhang, Yi & Liu, Kaipei, 2019. "Two-stage distributionally robust coordinated scheduling for gas-electricity integrated energy system considering wind power uncertainty and reserve capacity configuration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 122-135.
    16. Diagoupis, Theodoros D. & Andrianesis, Panagiotis E. & Dialynas, Evangelos N., 2016. "A planning approach for reducing the impact of natural gas network on electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 189-198.
    17. Farrokhifar, Meisam & Nie, Yinghui & Pozo, David, 2020. "Energy systems planning: A survey on models for integrated power and natural gas networks coordination," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    18. Eggimann, Sven & Usher, Will & Eyre, Nick & Hall, Jim W., 2020. "How weather affects energy demand variability in the transition towards sustainable heating," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    19. Daniel Scamman & Baltazar Solano-Rodríguez & Steve Pye & Lai Fong Chiu & Andrew Z. P. Smith & Tiziano Gallo Cassarino & Mark Barrett & Robert Lowe, 2020. "Heat Decarbonisation Modelling Approaches in the UK: An Energy System Architecture Perspective," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(8), pages 1-28, April.
    20. Broad, Oliver & Hawker, Graeme & Dodds, Paul E., 2020. "Decarbonising the UK residential sector: The dependence of national abatement on flexible and local views of the future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    21. Craig, Christopher A. & Feng, Song, 2017. "Exploring utility organization electricity generation, residential electricity consumption, and energy efficiency: A climatic approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 779-790.
    22. Zhang, Xiaochun & Myhrvold, Nathan P. & Hausfather, Zeke & Caldeira, Ken, 2016. "Climate benefits of natural gas as a bridge fuel and potential delay of near-zero energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 317-322.
    23. Pellegrino, Sandro & Lanzini, Andrea & Leone, Pierluigi, 2017. "Greening the gas network – The need for modelling the distributed injection of alternative fuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 266-286.

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