IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v187y2021ics0308521x20308921.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Adapting sweet cherry orchards to extreme weather events – Decision Analysis in support of farmers' investments in Central Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Rojas, Gonzalo
  • Fernandez, Eduardo
  • Whitney, Cory
  • Luedeling, Eike
  • Cuneo, Italo F.

Abstract

Available options for mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events on temperate fruit trees involve a number of risks and uncertainties, leaving growers hesitant about the benefits of implementing new technologies to protect their orchards. We used Decision Analysis approaches, which account for these risks and uncertainties, to assess investment decisions in sweet cherry production systems in central Chile. We evaluated the adoption of polyethylene covers for orchards in northern- and southern-central Chile. Gathering expert and key stakeholder knowledge, we identified relevant variables for the adoption decision and developed a causal impact pathway model. We parameterized this model by collecting estimates from experts in the form of probability distributions. We implemented the model as a Monte Carlo simulation and projected probability distributions for the Net Present Value and the annual cash flow. Results highlight that farmers in southern-central Chile could expect major benefits from covering their orchards, with a 90% confidence interval for the Net Present Value from −33,605 USD to 595,447 USD. In northern-central areas, implementing covers did not significantly improve the Net Present Value (90% confidence interval from −149,597 USD to 433,361 USD). Across zones, our model results were sensitive to market price, crop yield, and fruit quality problems (i.e. low firmness). Cover effectiveness against rain events was relevant only in the southern-central zone, whereas effectiveness against frost events was relevant in both sites. Expected Value of Perfect Information calculations revealed that additional information on yield and market price could substantially help to make a confident decision. Our simulations suggest that orchard protection in southern-central Chile may be necessary for secure and profitable cherry production in the future. In this case study, we demonstrated the applicability of Decision Analysis to support farmers in identifying appropriate and effective strategies in time to overcome future challenges resulting from climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Rojas, Gonzalo & Fernandez, Eduardo & Whitney, Cory & Luedeling, Eike & Cuneo, Italo F., 2021. "Adapting sweet cherry orchards to extreme weather events – Decision Analysis in support of farmers' investments in Central Chile," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:187:y:2021:i:c:s0308521x20308921
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.103031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X20308921
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.103031?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keith Shepherd & Douglas Hubbard & Norman Fenton & Karl Claxton & Eike Luedeling & Jan de Leeuw, 2015. "Policy: Development goals should enable decision-making," Nature, Nature, vol. 523(7559), pages 152-154, July.
    2. Trienekens, Jacques H., 2011. "Agricultural Value Chains in Developing Countries A Framework for Analysis," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 14(2), pages 1-32, May.
    3. Fitsum Hagos & Gayathri Jayasinghe & Seleshi Bekele Awulachew & Mekonnen Loulseged & Aster Denekew Yilma, 2012. "Agricultural water management and poverty in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43, pages 99-111, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Viviana Tudela & Pablo Sarricolea & Roberto Serrano-Notivoli & Oliver Meseguer-Ruiz, 2023. "A pilot study for climate risk assessment in agriculture: a climate-based index for cherry trees," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 163-185, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thanos Fragkandreas, 2022. "Three Decades of Research on Innovation and Inequality: Causal Scenarios, Explanatory Factors, and Suggestions," Working Papers 60, Birkbeck Centre for Innovation Management Research, revised Feb 2022.
    2. Tram Anh Thi Nguyen & Kim Anh Thi Nguyen & Curtis Jolly, 2019. "Is Super-Intensification the Solution to Shrimp Production and Export Sustainability?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Bokelmann, Wolfgang & Adamseged, Muluken E., 2016. "Contributing to a better understanding of the value chain framework in developing countries," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 249334, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    4. Bandason, Wellington & Parwada, Cosmas & Mushunje, Abbyssinia, 2022. "Macadamia Nuts (Macadamia intergrifolia) Value Chain and Technical Efficiency among the Small-scale Farmers in Zimbabwe," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 3(4), December.
    5. Adetoyinbo, Ayobami & Otter, Verena, 2020. "Organizational Structures, Gender Roles and Upgrading Strategies for Smallholders in Developing Countries’ Local Value Chains," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 305193, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    6. Dung, Truong Quang & Bonney, Lawrence Bryan & Adhikari, Rajendra & Miles, Morgan P., 2021. "Entrepreneurial orientation and vertical knowledge acquisition by smallholder agricultural firms in transitional economies: The role of interfirm collaboration in value-chains," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 327-335.
    7. Mili, Samir, 2017. "Benchmarking Agri-Food Value Chain Performance Factors in South Mediterranean Countries," 2018 International European Forum (163rd EAAE Seminar), February 5-9, 2018, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 276890, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    8. Hongyu Wang & Xiaolei Wang & Apurbo Sarkar & Lu Qian, 2021. "Evaluating the Impacts of Smallholder Farmer’s Participation in Modern Agricultural Value Chain Tactics for Facilitating Poverty Alleviation—A Case Study of Kiwifruit Industry in Shaanxi, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, May.
    9. Griffith, Garry & Baker, Derek & Fleming, Euan & Mounter, Stuart & Malcolm, Bill & Umberger, Wendy, 2017. "146 Chain Failure and Chain Goods: Re-thinking Value Chain Upgrading and Promotion in Developing Countries," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 8(2), March.
    10. Hagos, Fitsum & Erkossa, Teklu & Lefore, Nicole & Langan, Simon, 2014. "Spate irrigation and poverty in Ethiopia," Conference Papers h046926, International Water Management Institute.
    11. Susana G. Azevedo & Minelle E. Silva & João C. O. Matias & Gustavo P. Dias, 2018. "The Influence of Collaboration Initiatives on the Sustainability of the Cashew Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-29, June.
    12. Adhikari, Rajendra Prasad & Collins, Ray & Sun, Ximing, 2012. "Segmenting Consumers to Inform Agrifood Value Chain Development in Nepal," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 15(4), pages 1-22, November.
    13. Berends, Jared & Rich, Karl M. & Kaitibie, Simeon & Lyne, Michael C., 2021. "Ex-ante evaluation of interventions to upgrade pork value chains in Southern Myanmar," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    14. Sushant Acharya & Sagar Raj Sharma & Bishnu Raj Upreti & Marie-Luise Matthys, 2021. "Why Nepal’s main agricultural export product, large cardamom, does not reach the world market," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, January.
    15. Musa H. Ahmed & Hiwot M. Mesfin & Seltene Abady & Wendmagegn Mesfin & Amare Kebede, 2016. "Adoption of improved groundnut seed and its impact on rural households’ welfare in Eastern Ethiopia," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1268747-126, December.
    16. Matias, Denise Margaret S. & Tambo, Justice A. & Stellmacher, Till & Borgemeister, Christian & von Wehrden, Henrik, 2018. "Commercializing traditional non-timber forest products: An integrated value chain analysis of honey from giant honey bees in Palawan, Philippines," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 223-231.
    17. Minten, Bart & Tamru, Seneshaw & Legesse, Ermias Engida & Kuma, Tadesse, 2018. "Supply chain from production areas to Addis Ababa," IFPRI book chapters, in: The economics of teff: Exploring Ethiopia’s biggest cash crop, chapter 11, pages 263-298, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Baloyi, Raesetse & Wale, Edilegnaw & Chipfupa, Unity, 2022. "Rural youth interest in economic activities along the agricultural value chain: empirical evidence from KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa) and implications," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 26(1), August.
    19. Thorpe, Jodie, 2018. "Procedural Justice in Value Chains Through Public–private Partnerships," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 162-175.
    20. Bart Minten & Seneshaw Tamru & Ermias Engida & Tadesse Kuma, 2016. "Feeding Africa's Cities: The Case of the Supply Chain of Teff to Addis Ababa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(2), pages 265-297.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:187:y:2021:i:c:s0308521x20308921. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.