Bayesian Inference for Hospital Quality in a Selection Model
This paper develops new econometric methods to infer hospital quality in a model with discrete dependent variables and nonrandom selection. Mortality rates in patient discharge records are widely used to infer hospital quality. However, hospital admission is not random and some hospitals may attract patients with greater unobserved severity of illness than others. In this situation the assumption of random admission leads to spurious inference about hospital quality. This study controls for hospital selection using a model in which distance between the patient's residence and alternative hospitals are key exogenous variables. Bayesian inference in this model is feasible using a Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior simulator, and attaches posterior probabilities to quality comparisons between individual hospitals and groups of hospitals. The study uses data on 74,848 Medicare patients admitted to 114 hospitals in Los Angeles County from 1989 through 1992 with a diagnosis of pneumonia. It finds the smallest and largest hospitals to be of the highest quality. There is strong evidence of dependence between the unobserved severity of illness and the assignment of patients to hospitals, whereby patients with a high unobserved severity of illness are disproportionately admitted to high quality hospitals. Consequently a conventional probit model leads to inferences about quality that are markedly different from those in this study's selection model. Copyright The Econometric Society 2003.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 71 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (07)
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 1 212 998 3820|
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/Email:
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: https://www.econometricsociety.org/publications/econometrica/access/ordering-back-issues Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John F. Geweke & Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1994.
"Statistical inference in the multinomial multiperiod probit model,"
177, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Geweke, John F. & Keane, Michael P. & Runkle, David E., 1997. "Statistical inference in the multinomial multiperiod probit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 125-165, September.
- McClellan, Mark & Noguchi, Haruko, 1998. "Technological Change in Heart-Disease Treatment: Does High Tech Mean Low Value?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 90-96, May.
- Burns, Lawton R. & Wholey, Douglas R., 1992. "The impact of physician characteristics in conditional choice models for hospital care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 43-62, May.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996.
"Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August.
- Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg, 1994. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometrics 9408001, EconWPA, revised 24 Oct 1994.
- Cutler, D.M., 1992.
"The Incidence of Adverse Medical Outcome Under Prospective Payment,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1603, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Cutler, David M, 1995. "The Incidence of Adverse Medical Outcomes under Prospective Payment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 29-50, January.
- David M. Cutler, 1993. "The Incidence of Adverse Medical Outcomes Under Prospective Payments," NBER Working Papers 4300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Keane, Michael P, 1992. "A Note on Identification in the Multinomial Probit Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 193-200, April.
- Mark McClellan & Douglas Staiger, 1999. "The Quality of Health Care Providers," NBER Working Papers 7327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Geweke & Gautam Gowrisankaran & Robert J. Town, 2003.
"Bayesian Inference for Hospital Quality in a Selection Model,"
Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1215-1238, 07.
- John Geweke & Gautam Gowrisankaran & Robert J. Town, 2001. "Bayesian Inference for Hospital Quality in a Selection Model," NBER Working Papers 8497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Geweke & Gautam Gowrisankaran & Robert J. Town, 2002. "Bayesian inference for hospital quality in a selection model," Working Paper Series 2002-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Sloan, Frank A., 2000. "Not-for-profit ownership and hospital behavior," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1141-1174 Elsevier.
- Gowrisankaran, Gautam & Town, Robert J., 1999. "Estimating the quality of care in hospitals using instrumental variables," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 747-767, December.
- Daniel P. Kessler & Mark B. McClellan, 2000. "Is Hospital Competition Socially Wasteful?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(2), pages 577-615, May.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
- Mark McClellan & Douglas Staiger, 1999.
"Comparing Hospital Quality at For-Profit and Not-for-Profit Hospitals,"
NBER Working Papers
7324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark B. McClellan & Douglas O. Staiger, 2000. "Comparing Hospital Quality at For-Profit and Not- for-Profit Hospitals," NBER Chapters, in: The Changing Hospital Industry: Comparing For-Profit and Not-for-Profit Institutions, pages 93-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:71:y:2003:i:4:p:1215-1238. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.