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Bayesian inference in models based on equilibrium search theory

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Abstract

The equilibrium search model represents a substantial advance over previous models of job search, but its empirical performance fails in some crucial ways. Hence, flexible extensions are called for. In this paper, we consider three such extensions in areas where Bayesian methods can be used to great advantage. These are i) A specification where Bayesian priors are used to center a model over the restrictions implied by economic theory; ii) A model involving a nonlinear prediction function where a closed form expression for the likelihood function does not exist; and iii) A model which allows for unobserved heterogeneity. We show how posterior simulation methods can be used for empirical analysis for all three models. The paper includes an empirical exercise involving the school-to-work transitions of Canadian and U.S. school leavers.

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  • Gary Koop, 1999. "Bayesian inference in models based on equilibrium search theory," ESE Discussion Papers 12, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  • Handle: RePEc:edn:esedps:12
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    1. Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1995. "Duration to First Job and the Return to Schooling: Estimates from a Search-Matching Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 263-286.
    2. van den Berg, Gerard J, 1999. "Empirical Inference with Equilibrium Search Models of the Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 283-306, June.
    3. Kiefer, Nicholas M & Steel, Mark F J, 1998. "Bayesian Analysis of the Prototypal Search Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 178-186, April.
    4. Ferrall, Christopher, 1997. "Unemployment Insurance Eligibility and the School-to-Work Transition in Canada and the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(2), pages 115-129, April.
    5. Bontemps, Christian & Robin, Jean-Marc & Van den Berg, Gerard J, 1999. "An Empirical Equilibrium Job Search Model with Search on the Job and Heterogeneous Workers and Firms," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1039-1074, November.
    6. Lancaster, Tony, 1997. "Exact Structural Inference in Optimal Job-Search Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(2), pages 165-179, April.
    7. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
    8. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Kiefer, Nicholas M., 1997. "Inference in non-linear panel models with partially missing observations The case of the equilibrium search model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 201-219, August.
    9. Gerard J. van den Berg & Geert Ridder, 1998. "An Empirical Equilibrium Search Model of the Labor Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1183-1222, September.
    10. Nielsen, M.S. & Rosholm, M., 1999. "Wages, Training, and Job Turnover in a Search-Matching Model," Papers 99-03, Centre for Labour Market and Social Research, Danmark-.
    11. Koning, Pierre & Ridder, Geert & van den Berg, Gerard J, 1995. "Structural and Frictional Unemployment in an Equilibrium Search Model with Heterogeneous Agents," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(S), pages 133-151, Suppl. De.
    12. Mortensen, D.T., 1998. "Equilibrium Unemployment with Wage Posting: Burdett-Mortensen Meet Pissarides," Papers 98-14, Centre for Labour Market and Social Research, Danmark-.
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    Cited by:

    1. John W. Schindler, 2001. "Testing optimality in job search models," International Finance Discussion Papers 710, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. repec:rfe:zbefri:v:35:y:2017:i:1:p:199-215 is not listed on IDEAS

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