IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-15-00066.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade and economic growth: A re-examination of the empirical evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Matthias Busse

    (Ruhr-University Bochum)

  • Jens Koeniger

    (Ruhr-University Bochum)

Abstract

While trade integration is often regarded as a principal determinant of economic growth, the empirical evidence for a causal linkage between trade and growth is ambiguous. This paper argues that the effect of trade in dynamic panel estimations depends crucially on the specification of trade. Both from a theoretical as well as an empirical point of view one specification is preferred: the volume of exports and imports as a share of lagged total GDP. For this trade measure, a positive and highly significant impact on economic growth can be found.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Busse & Jens Koeniger, 2015. "Trade and economic growth: A re-examination of the empirical evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2862-2876.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00066
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2015/Volume35/EB-15-V35-I4-P286.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September.
    2. Francisco Rodríguez, 2006. "Openness and Growth: What Have We Learned?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-011, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    3. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    4. Erich Gundlach, 2005. "Solow vs. Solow: Notes on Identification and Interpretation in the Empirics of Growth and Development," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(3), pages 541-556, October.
    5. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405.
    6. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-389, September.
    7. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    8. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    9. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 253-266, April.
    11. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
    12. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
    13. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    14. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    15. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. James Feyrer, 2019. "Trade and Income—Exploiting Time Series in Geography," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-35, October.
    17. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    18. Dan Ben-David, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-679.
    19. Hoeffler, Anke E, 2002. "The Augmented Solow Model and the African Growth Debate," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 135-158, May.
    20. Noguer, Marta & Siscart, Marc, 2005. "Trade raises income: a precise and robust result," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 447-460, March.
    21. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mihai Mutascu, 2018. "G7 countries: between trade openness and CO2 emissions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(3), pages 1446-1456.
    2. Salwa TRABELSI, 2017. "Public education expenditure and economic growth: the educational quality threshold effect," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 45, pages 99-112.
    3. Silberberger, Magdalene & Königer, Jens, 2016. "Regulation, trade and economic growth," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 308-322.
    4. M. G. C. N. Madadeniya & S. Sivarajasingham, 2018. "Which Is Better For Economic Growth In Sri Lanka, Trade With Saarc Or Trade With Asean?," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 3(3), pages 95-116, December.
    5. Enrico D'Elia & Roberta De Santis, 2018. "Growth divergence and income inequality in OECD countries:the role of trade and financial openness," Working Papers LuissLab 18140, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    6. Sung Ju Cho & Saera Oh & Sang Hyeon Lee, 2020. "The Impact of Structure Similarity of Nontariff Measures on Agricultural Trade," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(24), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Dinkneh Gebre Borojo & Yushi Jiang, 2016. "The Impact of Africa-China Trade Openness on Technology Transfer and Economic Growth for Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(2), pages 403-431, November.
    8. Surugiu Marius Razvan & Surugiu Camelia, 2016. "Growth, Trade, Investments and Expenditures: Analysis of the Nexus," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(35), pages 7-16, November.
    9. Zheng, Wei & Walsh, Patrick Paul, 2019. "Economic growth, urbanization and energy consumption — A provincial level analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 153-162.
    10. Wei Zheng & Patrick Paul Walsh, 2018. "Economic growth, urbanization and energy consumption," Working Papers 201817, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    11. Deimante Blavasciunaite & Lina Garsviene & Kristina Matuzeviciute, 2020. "Trade Balance Effects on Economic Growth: Evidence from European Union Countries," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, July.
    12. Sheereen Fauzel, 2017. "Trade Facilitation and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Using A Static and Dynamic Framework," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(2), pages 270-281, December.
    13. Mullings, Robert & Mahabir, Aruneema, 2018. "Growth by Destination: The Role of Trade in Africa’s Recent Growth Episode," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 243-261.
    14. Akram, Rabia & Chen, Fuzhong & Khalid, Fahad & Huang, Guanhua & Irfan, Muhammad, 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of energy efficiency and renewable energy on economic growth of BRICS countries: A fixed effect panel quantile regression analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    15. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller & Florian Springholz, 2021. "Understanding economic openness: a review of existing measures," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(1), pages 87-120, February.
    16. Mutascu, Mihai, 2018. "A time-frequency analysis of trade openness and CO2 emissions in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 443-455.
    17. G.D.N.M Godagampala, 2018. "Impact Of Investments In Human Capital Determinants On Economic Growth: Time Series Analysis Based On Sri Lanka," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 3(3), pages 85-93, December.
    18. Teboho Jeremiah Mosikari & Joel Hinaunye Eita, 2020. "Modelling Asymmetric Relationship between Exports and Growth in a Developing Economy: Evidence from Namibia," Economic Development and Well-being Research Group Working Paper Series edwrg-02-2020, University of Johannesburg, College of Business and Economics, revised 2020.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silberberger, Magdalene & Königer, Jens, 2016. "Regulation, trade and economic growth," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 308-322.
    2. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    3. Chang, Roberto & Kaltani, Linda & Loayza, Norman V., 2009. "Openness can be good for growth: The role of policy complementarities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49, September.
    4. E. Tsanana & X. Chapsa & C. Katrakilidis, 2016. "Is growth corrupted or bureaucratic? Panel evidence from the enlarged EU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(33), pages 3131-3147, July.
    5. Mullings, Robert & Mahabir, Aruneema, 2018. "Growth by Destination: The Role of Trade in Africa’s Recent Growth Episode," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 243-261.
    6. Marilyne Huchet†Bourdon & Chantal Le Mouël & Mariana Vijil, 2018. "The relationship between trade openness and economic growth: Some new insights on the openness measurement issue," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 59-76, January.
    7. Mr. Andrew Berg & Anne O. Krueger, 2003. "Trade, Growth, and Poverty: A Selective Survey," IMF Working Papers 2003/030, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Gabriel Felbermayr, 2004. "Does trade cause divergence? Dynamic panel data evidence," Economics working papers 2004-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2001. "Productivity Differences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 563-606.
    10. Nicole Madariaga & Sylvie Montout & Patrice Ollivaud, 2005. "Regional convergence and agglomeration in Argentina: a spatial panel data approach," Post-Print halshs-00193304, HAL.
    11. T. Gries & M. Redlin, 2020. "Trade and economic development: global causality and development- and openness-related heterogeneity," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 923-944, October.
    12. Ding, Sai & Knight, John, 2009. "Can the augmented Solow model explain China's remarkable economic growth? A cross-country panel data analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 432-452, September.
    13. Wacziarg, Romain, 1998. "Measuring the dynamic gains from trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2001, The World Bank.
    14. Bayraktar-Sağlam, Bahar & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2014. "A Romerian contribution to the empirics of economic growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 257-272.
    15. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2011. "Globalization and growth in the low income African countries with the extreme bounds analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 795-805, May.
    16. John Knight & Sai Ding, 2008. "Why has China Grown so Fast? The Role of Structural Change," Economics Series Working Papers 415, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin, 2014. "Naturally negative: The growth effects of natural disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 92-106.
    18. Antoni Estevadeordal & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Is the Washington Consensus Dead? Growth, Openness, and the Great Liberalization, 1970s–2000s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1669-1690, December.
    19. Soukiazis, Elias & Antunes, Micaela, 2011. "Is foreign trade important for regional growth? Empirical evidence from Portugal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1363-1373, May.
    20. Vu, Khuong M & Asongu, Simplice, 2020. "Backwardness advantage and economic growth in the information age: A cross-country empirical study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Openness; Trade; Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00066. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.