IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-13-00474.html

Calvo-type rules and the forward-looking behavior of inflation targeting central banks

Author

Listed:
  • Eurilton Araújo

    (Central Bank of Brazil and FUCAPE Business School)

  • Débora Gouveia

    (Insper Institute of Education and Research)

Abstract

We estimate small open economy models in which inflation targeting central banks respond to a discounted infinite sum of expected inflation and output gaps (Calvo-type rules). The results support Calvo-type rules for Australia and Canada, and suggest longer targeting horizons for inflation compared with output gaps.

Suggested Citation

  • Eurilton Araújo & Débora Gouveia, 2013. "Calvo-type rules and the forward-looking behavior of inflation targeting central banks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2042-2051.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00474
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2013/Volume33/EB-13-V33-I3-P192.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Paul Levine & Peter McAdam & Joseph Pearlman, 2007. "Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules and Indeterminacy: A Puzzle and a Resolution," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 77-110, December.
    3. Gabriel, Vasco J. & Levine, Paul & Spencer, Christopher, 2009. "How forward-looking is the Fed? Direct estimates from a 'Calvo-type' rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 92-95, August.
    4. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    5. Ida Wolden Bache & Øistein Røislanda & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2011. "Interest Rate Smoothing and "Calvo-Type" Interest Rate Rules: A Comment on Levine, McAdam, and Pearlman (2007)," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 79-90, September.
    6. Ondra Kamenik & Heesun Kiem & Vladimir Klyuev & Douglas Laxton, 2013. "Why Is Canada's Price Level So Predictable?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 71-85, February.
    7. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    8. Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2014. "Do Inflation-Targeting Central Banks Implicitly Target the Price Level?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 301-326, June.
    9. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Amy Corbett & Patrick Perrier, 2006. "An Optimized Monetary Policy Rule for ToTEM," Staff Working Papers 06-41, Bank of Canada.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    11. David N. DeJong & Chetan Dave, 2011. "Structural Macroeconometrics Second Edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9622, December.
    12. Daniel Buncic & Martin Melecky, 2008. "An Estimated New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 1-16, March.
    13. Wei Dong, 2013. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? Some new evidence from structural estimation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-586, May.
    14. Gill Hammond, 2012. "State of the art of inflation targeting," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 4, number 29, April.
    15. GORDON De BROUWER & JAMES GILBERT, 2005. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 124-134, June.
    16. Angela Huang & Dimitri Margaritis & David Mayes, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from New Zealand," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 175-200, September.
    17. Angela Huang & Dimitri Margaritis & David Mayes, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from New Zealand," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 175-200, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence On Inflation-Targeting Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 593-630, April.
    2. Wei Dong, 2013. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? Some new evidence from structural estimation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 555-586, May.
    3. Sofia Bauducco & Rodrigo Caputo, 2020. "Wicksellian Rules and the Taylor Principle: Some Practical Implications," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(1), pages 340-368, January.
    4. Pär Österholm, 2005. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 217-247, July.
    5. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Kun-Li & Guo, Na, 2016. "Hawk or dove: Switching regression model for the monetary policy reaction function in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 94-111.
    6. Gabriel, Vasco J. & Levine, Paul & Spencer, Christopher, 2009. "How forward-looking is the Fed? Direct estimates from a 'Calvo-type' rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 92-95, August.
    7. Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Devaluations, output and the balance sheet effect: a structural econometric analysis," BIS Working Papers 215, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Bayangos, V.B., 2006. "Exchange rate uncertainty and monetary transmission in the Philippines," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19193, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    9. Rizki E. Wimanda & Paul M. Turner & Maximilian J.B. Hall, 2012. "Monetary policy rules for Indonesia: which type is the most efficient?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(4), pages 469-484, August.
    10. Basu, Parantap & Lee, Yongdae & Reinhorn, Leslie J., 2025. "A monetary policy accordion: Why do central banks from different countries expand and contract together?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Rodrigo Caputo & Luis Oscar Herrera, 2013. "Efficient CPI-Based Taylor Rules in Small Open Economies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 694, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Kapinos, Pavel, 2011. "Forward-looking monetary policy and anticipated shocks to inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 620-633.
    13. Filippou, Ilias & Taylor, Mark P., 2023. "Forward-Looking Policy Rules and Currency Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 449-483, February.
    14. Rizki E. Wimanda & Paul M. Turner & Maximilian J.B. Hall, 2012. "Monetary policy rules for Indonesia: which type is the most efficient?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 469-484, December.
    15. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Marco Airaudo, 2005. "Learning about which measure of inflation to target," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 176, Society for Computational Economics.
    16. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov, 2015. "Do Real Balance Effects Invalidate the Taylor Principle in Closed and Open Economies?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 938-975, October.
    17. Leu, Shawn Chen-Yu, 2011. "A New Keynesian SVAR model of the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 157-168, January.
    18. Caputo, Rodrigo & Herrera, Luis Oscar, 2017. "Following the leader? The relevance of the Fed funds rate for inflation targeting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 25-52.
    19. David Navrátil, 2004. "Systematická složka měnové politiky ČNB v režimu cílování inflace [Systematic part of CNB's monetary policy in inflation targeting regime]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(5), pages 623-636.
    20. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2015. "Third-country effects on the exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 227-243.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00474. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.