IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-10-00465.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing the effects of crime on the Italian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Detotto

    (Dipartimento Economia, Impresa e Regolamentazione (DEIR) and CRENoS, University of Sassari)

  • Pulina Manuela

    (School of Economics and Management, Fac. of Economics, Free Univ. Bolzano; CRENoS, Univ. Sassari)

Abstract

This paper aims at assessing the causal and temporal relationships between crime and the economic indicators related to the aggregated demand function. The case study is Italy and a quarterly frequency is used (1981:1-2005:4). A Vector Autoregressive Correction Mechanism (VECM) is employed after having assessed the integration and cointegration status of the variables under investigation. Long and short run dynamics are estimated. A Granger causality test is also implemented to establish temporal interrelationships. The main findings are that, in the short run, crime positively effects GDP and government expenditure, while has a crowding out effect on exports. In the long run, crime positively leads imports and inflation, whereas negatively investments and government expenditure.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Detotto & Pulina Manuela, 2010. "Testing the effects of crime on the Italian economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2063-2074.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00465
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2010/Volume30/EB-10-V30-I3-P189.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Al-Marhubi, Fahim A., 2000. "Corruption and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 199-202, February.
    2. De Mello Joao M & Zilberman Eduardo, 2008. "Does Crime Affect Economic Decisions? An Empirical Investigation of Savings in a High-Crime Environment," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-28, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Biagi, Bianca & Brandono, Maria Giovanna & Detotto, Claudio, 2012. "The effect of tourism on crime in Italy: A dynamic panel approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-24.
    2. Tauã Vital & Daniel Morais De Souza & Jessica Faciroli, 2020. "Unemployment, poverty and police performance: an ARDL analysis of crime in São Paulo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 128-139.
    3. Diana L Carreon-Guzman & Jorge Garza-Rodriguez & David R Garza-Turrubiates & Ricardo A Gonzalez-Camargo & Eugenio Lozano-Castillo, 2015. "The effects of crime on the Mexican economy: a vector error correction model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 959-967.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bruno Karoubi & Régis Chenavaz & Corina Paraschiv, 2016. "Consumers’ perceived risk and hold and use of payment instruments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(14), pages 1317-1329, March.
    2. Christoph S. Weber, 2018. "Central bank transparency and inflation (volatility) – new evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 21-67, January.
    3. Detotto Claudio & Vannini Marco & McCannon Bryan C., 2014. "Understanding Ransom Kidnappings and Their Duration," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-23, July.
    4. Mutascu, Mihai, 2009. "The effect of the government intervention in economy on corruption," MPRA Paper 16175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Arjona Trujillo, Ana María, 2002. "La corrupción política: una revisión de la literatura," DE - Documentos de Trabajo. Economía. DE de021404, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    6. Rose Ann Camille C. Caliso & Jamil Paolo S. Francisco & Emmanuel M. Garcia, 2020. "Broad Insecurity and Perceived Victimization Risk," Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, , vol. 32(2), pages 160-179, July.
    7. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & da Cunha Lima, Luiza Leitão, 2018. "Effects of fiscal transparency on inflation and inflation expectations: Empirical evidence from developed and developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 26-37.
    8. Björn Frank, 2004. "Zehn Jahre empirische Korruptionsforschung," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 73(2), pages 184-199.
    9. Şerife Özşahin & Gülbahar Üçler, 2017. "The Consequences of Corruption on Inflation in Developing Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration and Causality Tests," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Fadi Fawaz & Anis Mnif & Ani Popiashvili, 2021. "Impact of governance on economic growth in developing countries: a case of HIDC vs. LIDC," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 23(1), pages 44-58, June.
    11. Carsten Hefeker, 2010. "Taxation, corruption and the exchange rate regime," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 338-346, March.
    12. Mazhar, Ummad & Jafri, Juvaria, 2014. "Does an informal sector reduce the economic dividends of political stability? Empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 60764, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Cooray, Arusha & Dzhumashev, Ratbek & Schneider, Friedrich, 2017. "How Does Corruption Affect Public Debt? An Empirical Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 115-127.
    14. Meixing Dai & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2015. "Fiscal Policy, Institutional Quality and Central Bank Transparency," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(5), pages 523-545, September.
    15. Singh, Prakarsh, 2011. "Impact of terrorism on investment decisions of farmers: evidence from the Punjab insurgency," MPRA Paper 33328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Najia Maraoui & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Islem Khefacha & Christophe Rault, 2021. "How Economic, Political, and Institutional Factors Influence the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes? New Evidence from Selected Countries of the MENA Region," Working Papers 1498, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Oct 2021.
    17. Salahodjaev, Raufhon, 2015. "Does intelligence help fighting inflation: an empirical test?," MPRA Paper 66882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Damir Piplica, 2015. "Corruption and Political View Point of the Governments in Transition Countries EU Members," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 73-87, January.
    19. André Carraro & Ronald O. Hillbrecht, 2003. "Modelos Microeconômicos de Corrupção Burocrática e Seus Determinantes Econômicos," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] d36, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    20. Olmos, Lorena & Bellido, Héctor & Román-Aso, Juan A., 2020. "The effects of mega-events on perceived corruption," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; aggregated demand; short and long run dynamics; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00465. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.