Biological characteristics modulating investor overconfidence
Applying a standard questionnaire (Lichtenstein and Fischhoff 1977) to a sample of 44 professional investors, we sought for explicit correlations between selected biological characteristics of the investors and the cognitive bias known as overconfidence. We found that both male and female investors showed overconfidence above the subjective probability of 0.7 and underconfidence below this threshold. But the sexes seemed to behave differently when they were totally uncertain of their answers. Experienced and inexperienced investors were overconfident whenever they were 70 percent (or above) confident of their answers. Despite that, experienced investors were relatively more calibrated. Of those who were highly uncertain of their answers, the inexperienced showed less confidence. Moreover, a logistic regression analysis showed that male subjects, fathers, right-handers, and subjects with a university degree and less than five years of experience in stock markets were more prone to the overconfidence effect.
Volume (Year): 30 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2005.
"Overconfidence and Trading Volume,"
SIFR Research Report Series
40, Institute for Financial Research.
- Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
- Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 1990. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, January.
- Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and trading volume," Papers 03-07, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
- Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," CEPR Discussion Papers 3941, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-07, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Bengtsson, Claes & Persson, Mats & Willenhag, Peter, 2004.
"Gender and Overconfidence,"
730, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Terrance Odean, 1998. "Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1887-1934, December.
- Bechara, Antoine & Damasio, Antonio R., 2005. "The somatic marker hypothesis: A neural theory of economic decision," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 336-372, August.
- Terrance Odean, 1998. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average," Finance 9803001, EconWPA.
- Dennis Dittrich & Werner Güth & Boris Maciejovsky, .
"Overconfidence in Investment Decisions: An Experimental Approach,"
Papers on Strategic Interaction
2001-03, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
- Dennis Dittrich & Werner Guth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2005. "Overconfidence in investment decisions: An experimental approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 471-491.
- Dennis Dittrich & Werner Güth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2001. "Overconfidence in Investment Decisions: An Experimental Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 626, CESifo Group Munich.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. "Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
- Laurence R. Iannaccone, 1998. "Introduction to the Economics of Religion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 1465-1495, September.
- Benos, Alexandros V., 1998. "Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 353-383, September.
- Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
- Kovalchik, Stephanie & Camerer, Colin F. & Grether, David M. & Plott, Charles R. & Allman, John M., 2005.
"Aging and decision making: a comparison between neurologically healthy elderly and young individuals,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 79-94, September.
- Kovalchik, Stephanie & Camerer, Colin F. & Grether, David M. & Plott, Charles R. & Allman, John M., 2003. "Aging and decision making: A comparison between neurologically healthy elderly and young individuals," Working Papers 1180, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Ernst Fehr & Urs Fischbacher & Michael Kosfeld, 2005. "Neuroeconomic Foundations of Trust and Social Preferences: Initial Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 346-351, May.
- Prince, Melvin, 1993. "Women, men and money styles," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 175-182, March.
- Paul W. Grimes, 2002. "The Overconfident Principles of Economics Student: An Examination of a Metacognitive Skill," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 15-30, January.
- Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Richard Deaves, 2003. "Emotion and financial markets," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 33-41.
- Locke, Peter R. & Mann, Steven C., 2005. "Professional trader discipline and trade disposition," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 401-444, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.