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Effects of international gold market on stock exchange volatility: evidence from asean emerging stock markets

  • Giam Quang Do

    ()

    (Chiangmai University and Hanoi University of Agriculture)

  • Michael Mcaleer

    ()

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam and National Chung Hsing University)

  • Songsak Sriboonchitta

    ()

    (Chiangmai University)

This paper examines behaviors of returns and volatility of ASEAN emerging stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam), incorporating with the effects from the international gold market. The estimates of GARCH(1,1) and GJR(1,1) for these stock markets indicate that the GJR(1,1) model is preferred to GARCH(1,1), except Vietnam. However, under the exogenous effects from international gold market such as the 1 day lagged returns and the 1 day lagged volatility of gold, the GARCH(1,1)-X model captures better stock market volatility behavior than GJR(1,1)-X, except Indonesia. Interestingly, gold could be a substitute commodity for stocks in Vietnam and the Philippines, while it could be a complement for stocks in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia.

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File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2009/Volume29/EB-09-V29-I2-P10.pdf
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Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 599-610

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00065
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  1. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Solt, Michael E & Swanson, Paul J, 1981. "On the Efficiency of the Markets for Gold and Silver," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 453-78, July.
  3. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  5. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "Stationarity and the existence of moments of a family of GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 109-117, January.
  6. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  7. Tully, Edel & Lucey, Brian M., 2007. "A power GARCH examination of the gold market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 316-325, June.
  8. Jeantheau, Thierry, 1998. "Strong Consistency Of Estimators For Multivariate Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 70-86, February.
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