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Devaluation And Output In Five Transition Economies: A Panel Cointegration Approach Of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia And Romania, 1993-2000

  • MITEZA, Ilir

This paper assesses the impact of devaluations on aggregate output for a group of five transition economies during the period 1993-2000. An application of panel unit root tests and panel cointegration establishes the presence of a long run relationship between real output, real exchange rates, real money and real wages, while the estimation of the long run relationship reveals that devaluations are contractionary in the long run. This finding is in contrast with a large part of the literature, which discern no long run effect on output.

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Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:6:y:2006:i:1_6
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  1. Taye, Haile Kebret, 1999. "The Impact of Devaluation on Macroeconomic Performance: The Case of Ethiopia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, July.
  2. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  3. Edward, Sebastian, 1986. "Are Devaluations Contractionary?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 501-08, August.
  4. David Barlow, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity in Three Transition Economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 201-221, September.
  5. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
  6. Sebastian Edwards, 1987. "Exchange Controls, Devaluations and Real Exchange Rates: The Latin American Experience," NBER Working Papers 2348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1998. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," International Finance Discussion Papers 611, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
  10. M Bahmani-Oskooee & I Miteza, 2003. "Are Devaluations Expansionary or Contractionary? A survey article," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 8(2), pages 1-28, September.
  11. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Radetzki, Marian, 1991. "Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Developed Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-25, October.
  12. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Output, devaluation and the real exchange rate in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 18-41, March.
  13. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
  14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Magda Kandil, 2002. "Are devaluations contractionary in Asia?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 25(1), pages 69-82, January.
  15. Mills, Terence C. & Pentecost, Eric J., 2001. "The real exchange rate and the output response in four EU accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 418-430, December.
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