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Are devaluations contractionary in Asia?




The main purpose of this paper is to determine empirically whether currency depreciation is expansionary or contractionary in Asian countries. It is argued that by disrupting the operation of the financial sector and by introducing uncertainty among consumers and investors, currency depreciation could be contractionary. A reduced-form model is introduced and tested by means of cointegration analysis. The results support our theoretical argument that in many Asian countries depreciation is contractionary.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Magda Kandil, 2002. "Are devaluations contractionary in Asia?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 69-82.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:25:y:2002:i:1:p:69-82
    DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2002.11051349

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. John T. Harvey, 1996. "Orthodox Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination: A Survey," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 567-583, July.
    2. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
    3. Stephan Schulmeister, 1988. "Currency speculation and dollar fluctuations," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 41(167), pages 343-365.
    4. repec:mes:jeciss:v:31:y:1997:i:2:p:615-622 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
    6. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu Hsing, 2010. "Euro and Technology Effects on Job Turnover in Greek Manufacturing," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 3(1), pages 39-47, July.
    2. Yu Hsing, 2006. "Responses of output in Poland to shocks to the exchange rate, the stock price, and other macroeconomic variables: a VAR model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(15), pages 1017-1022.
    3. Yu Hsing, 2016. "Is Real Depreciation Contractionary? The Case of South Korea," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 1951-1958.
    4. Munir A. S. Choudhary & Muhammad Aslam Chaudhry, 2007. "Effects of the Exchange Rate on Output and Price Level: Evidence from the Pakistani Economy," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 49-77, Jan-Jun.
    5. Artatrana Ratha & Eungmin Kang & Mary Edwards, 2008. "Does an Undervalued Currency Promote Growth? Evidence from China," Working Papers 2008-2 Classification- F3, Saint Cloud State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Magda Kandil, 2010. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Output in Oil-Producing Countries: The Case of Iran," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 23-45, May.
    7. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & Mohammadian, Amirhossein, 2017. "On the Relation between Domestic Output and Exchange Rate in 68 Countries: An Asymmetry Analysis," MPRA Paper 82939, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Apr 2017.
    8. Artatrana Ratha, 2010. "Does Devaluation work for India?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 247-264.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:247-264 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. MITEZA, Ilir, 2006. "Devaluation And Output In Five Transition Economies: A Panel Cointegration Approach Of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia And Romania, 1993-2000," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1).
    11. repec:eee:rujoec:v:1:y:2015:i:3:p:217-239 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Magda Kandil, 2010. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Output in Oil-Producing Countries: The Case of Iran," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(3), pages 23-45, May.
    13. HSING, Yu & GUISAN, M.C., 2011. "Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Trade And Real Output Growth: The Case Of Spain, 1970-2009," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(1).
    14. Tatiana Evdokimova & Pavel Trunin & Andrei Zubarev, 2013. "The Impact of the Real Ruble Exchange Rate on the Economic Activity in Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 165P, pages 164-164.

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