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The Duration Of Trade Agreement Negotiations

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  • Lizzette ARROYO
  • Ramon A. CASTILLO-PONCE

Abstract

In this document we analyze the factors that influence the length of trade agreement negotiations. We consider economic and sociopolitical determinants and conduct the exercise estimating Cox-proportional hazard models. We find that divergence in the economic size or growth tends to expedite trade talks. This is also true for differences in trade openness. Political factors, on the other hand, prolong the implementation of trade agreements. Specifically, trade negotiations stall as countries adopt more radical political positions; opposite to their potential trading partners. This last result is particularly relevant in today’s trade environment, where a shift in political preferences in countries like the US and Great Brittan has created a wedge between these countries and their main trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Lizzette ARROYO & Ramon A. CASTILLO-PONCE, 2019. "The Duration Of Trade Agreement Negotiations," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 19(2), pages 19-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:19:y:2019:i:2_2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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