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Macroeconomic Impacts on Indonesian Agricultural Exports

Author

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  • Kaman Nainggolan

    (Central of Agricultural Data Processing and Statistic, Ministry of Agriculture, Jakarta)

Abstract

Artikel ini mengkaji kebijaksanaan ekonomi makro terhadap ekspor komoditas pertanian. Model ekonometrika dibangun dengan menghubungkan variabel-variabel makro dengan ekspor melalui a) nilai tukar real, b) suku bunga, dan c) inflasi. Model ekonometrika dugaan digunakan untuk mensimulasi dampak kebijaksanaan moneter Indonesia dan pendapatan partner dagang kita terhadap ekspor pertanian. Hasil studi menunjukkan adanya hubungan yang kuat antara nilai tukar rupiah real dengan ekspor pertanian. Depresiasi rupiah ternyata berakibat peningkatan ekspor. Peningkatan pendapatan partner dagang juga meningkatkan ekspor pertanian kita. Sebaliknya supplai uang tidak memberikan pengaruh nyata terhadap nilai tukar real rupiah, dan karenanya tidak berpengaruh terhadap ekspor, tetapi menimbulkan inflasi. Inflasi cenderung menyebabkan rupiah menjadi mahal (overvalue). Kebijaksanaan untuk menghindari apresiasi rupiah tampaknya akan memberikan dorongan terhadap ekspor pertanian.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaman Nainggolan, 1988. "Macroeconomic Impacts on Indonesian Agricultural Exports," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 36, pages 163-189, Juni.
    • Handle: RePEc:lpe:efijnl:198807
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