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Supply and Demand Model for the Malaysian Cocoa Market

Author

Listed:
  • Abdel Hameed, Amna Awad
  • Hasanov, Akram
  • Idris, Nurjihan
  • Abdullah, Amin Mahir
  • Mohamed Arshad, Fatimah
  • Shamsudin, Mad Nasir

Abstract

This paper investigates a system of supply, demand, and price equations for Malaysian cocoa using annual data over the period 1975-2008. Theoretically, in supply and demand models, the price variable is treated as endogenous. However, Hausman specification test result indicates that there is no simultaneity problem in the model. Thus, we estimate the system of equations utilizing the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimation technique which might be considered a more efficient estimator for supply and demand model of the Malaysian cocoa. The results suggest that the Malaysian cocoa production is mainly affected by the previous year production, price of cocoa beans at lag two as well as the harvested area. In the export demand equation, the real effective exchange rates is statistically significant determinant while the index of industrial production of advanced economies and the world price of cocoa are found to be insignificant. The results also suggest that both Malaysian industrial production index and domestic price of cocoa beans are key determinants of domestic demand for cocoa beans in Malaysia. Finally, the domestic price of cocoa beans is highly sensitive to its domestic consumption, lagged domestic price, and its world price.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdel Hameed, Amna Awad & Hasanov, Akram & Idris, Nurjihan & Abdullah, Amin Mahir & Mohamed Arshad, Fatimah & Shamsudin, Mad Nasir, 2009. "Supply and Demand Model for the Malaysian Cocoa Market," MPRA Paper 19568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19568
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert G. Chambers & Richard E. Just, 1979. "A Critique of Exchange Rate Treatment in Agricultural Trade Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(2), pages 249-257.
    2. Henk. L.M. Kox, 2004. "The market for cocoa powder," Industrial Organization 0412002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. G. Edward Schuh, 1974. "The Exchange Rate and U. S. Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-13.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andras Tothmihaly, 2017. "How low is the price elasticity in the global cocoa market?," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 258587, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Supply and Demand; Malaysian Cocoa; SUR technique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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