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Fragen der künftigen Entwicklung des europäischen Handelssystems für Emissionsrechte


  • Jürgen Hogrefe
  • Jörg Jasper
  • Uwe Knickrehm
  • Felix Würtenberger


The paper gives a brief overview of probable further developments of the EU-ETS. At first, we discuss scenarios for the auspices of the Post-Kyoto-Regime providing a general framework of the EU-ETS in the period after 2012. We find that Europe is likely to still have an ambitious CO2-regime after 2012, provided that the global post-2012 process does not cease to exist and that there will be no "face-saving" regulation. CDM will become increasingly important. Auctioning of emission allowances is likely to be introduced after 2012. The fuel independent benchmark is likely to become subject of public discussion again. Public discussion on carbon market intervention by the government will continue, although one should be sceptical with respect to its results. In general, one must not ignore the fact that deficiencies in carbon market performance which could be observed during the first year after its installation in the beginning of 2005 were mostly due to mistakes in market design and to a lack of experience of market participants in using the instrument. Der Beitrag gibt einen bewertenden Überblick über die mögliche Weiterentwicklung des europäischen Handelssystems für Emissionsrechte. Dazu wird zunächst der allgemeine Rahmen dargestellt, in den das europäische System eingebettet ist, wobei denkbare Szenarien für das internationale Klimaschutzregime nach Auslaufen des Kyoto-Protokolls 2012 diskutiert werden. Im Anschluss werden Fragen zu wesentlichen Ausgestaltungsmerkmalen des europäischen Handelssystems nach 2012 analysiert. Es zeigt sich, dass Europa vermutlich weiterhin eines der anspruchsvollsten CO2-Regulierungsregimes weltweit haben wird. Der Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) wird in diesem Kontext eine stark wachsende Bedeutung erlangen. Das Thema Auktionierung wird nach 2012 zusätzliches Gewicht erhalten. Die Frage nach einem brennstoffunabhängigen Benchmark wird dann vermutlich erneut öffentlich diskutiert. Auch die Diskussion um ergänzende Markteingriffe des Staates (safety valves; carbon hedge) wird weitergehen, wenngleich diese oftmals mit Skepsis zu betrachten sind. Auch sollte die Diskussion nicht darüber hinwegtäuschen, dass die teilweise problematische Performance des CO2-Marktes vor allem auf Fehler im Marktdesign, aber auch auf fehlende Erfahrungen mit dem Instrument zurückzuführen ist.

Suggested Citation

  • Jürgen Hogrefe & Jörg Jasper & Uwe Knickrehm & Felix Würtenberger, 2007. "Fragen der künftigen Entwicklung des europäischen Handelssystems für Emissionsrechte," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(1), pages 126-139.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:76-1-10

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. ZhongXiang Zhang, 2003. "Open Trade with the U.S. without Compromising Canada’s Ability to Comply with its Kyoto Target," Working Papers 2003.68, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Cameron Hepburn & Michael Grubb & Karsten Neuhoff & Felix Matthes & Maximilien Tse, 2006. "Auctioning of EU ETS phase II allowances: how and why?," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 137-160, January.
    3. Georg Müller-Fürstenberger & Gunter Stephan, 2005. "Intensity Targeting or Emission CAPS: Non-Cooperative Climate Change Policies and Technological Change," Diskussionsschriften dp0502, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
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    More about this item


    Emissions trading system; allocation rules; post Kyoto; greenhouse gas emissions; Europe;

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy


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