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English fertility heads south: Understanding the recent decline

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  • John Ermisch

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Background: Fertility in England fell substantially during the past decade. The total fertility rate reached its historically lowest level in 2020. Objective: To improve our understanding of the decline in English fertility by using data on individual women during 2009–2020 from Understanding Society, which is a panel survey of the members of approximately 40,000 households. Methods: Estimation of a model of age and parity-specific birth rates on individual data, including year-effects, and cross-validation of it with external sources from registration data. Translation of the parameter estimates into more easily interpreted concepts such as period parity progression ratios and the total fertility rate (along with the standard errors for each). Results: The decline in first-birth rates appears to be primarily responsible for the decline in the TFR during the past decade, and women with an education below degree level experienced a larger fertility decline. Conclusions: If recent period fertility patterns are sustained, England is embarking on a regime of a high level of childlessness not seen since that among women born in the early 1920s. Contribution: Individual-level panel data is used to estimate a model of parity-specific birth rates, which is cross-validated against registration data and used to provide insights into what lies behind the recent decline in English fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • John Ermisch, 2021. "English fertility heads south: Understanding the recent decline," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(29), pages 903-916.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:45:y:2021:i:29
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2021.45.29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonas Wood & Tine Kil & Karel Neels, 2014. "The educational gradient of childlessness and cohort parity progression in 14 low fertility countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(46), pages 1365-1416.
    2. Margherita Fort & Nicole Schneeweis & Rudolf Winter‐Ebmer, 2016. "Is Education Always Reducing Fertility? Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Reforms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(595), pages 1823-1855, September.
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    1. repec:osf:socarx:nej84_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ermisch, John, 2023. "On the Similarity of Fertility across European National Borders," SocArXiv nej84, Center for Open Science.
    3. Piano, Clara E., 2025. "Mind the fertility gap: Why people stopped having babies and how economic freedom can help," IEA Discussion Papers 143, Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA).
    4. Beata Osiewalska & Anna Matysiak, 2024. "Two Sides of a Coin: the Relationship Between Work Autonomy and Childbearing," Working Papers 2024-02, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    5. Bernice Kuang & Ann Berrington & Sarah Christison & Hill Kulu, 2024. "Educational trends in cohort fertility by birth order: A comparison of England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(36), pages 1125-1166.
    6. Aase Villadsen & Samantha Parsons & Alice Goisis, 2026. "Harmonised fertility histories in four British longitudinal cohort studies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 54(18), pages 559-576.
    7. Brian Buh, 2022. "Which type of employment uncertainty matters when becoming a parent? An analysis by educational attainment in the United Kingdom," VID Working Papers 2201, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    8. Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk & Gunnar Andersson, 2022. "Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(12), pages 345-358.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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