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Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s

Author

Listed:
  • Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk

    (Stockholms Universitet)

  • Gunnar Andersson

    (Stockholms Universitet)

Abstract

Background: The downward fertility trend in Western countries during the 2010s is puzzling, not least in the Nordic region. Objective: In order to better understand its driving forces, we examine whether the decline is driven by differential behavior or compositional changes across sociodemographic population subgroups, for the empirical case of Sweden. Methods: Event-history techniques are applied to register data of the Swedish-born population to provide an in-depth analysis of the sociodemographic profile of the fertility decline. Results: The decline is confined to first births, with no apparent difference between individuals living in different types of municipalities or between those with fully Swedish and non-Swedish backgrounds. The first-birth decline is notable across labor market activity groups, but is somewhat more pronounced among those with weaker labor market positions. However, the shares of men and women who were active in the labor market and who had high earnings increased. The findings are strikingly similar for men and women. Conclusions: For the most part the factors driving the Swedish fertility decline do not appear to be structural. Other forces, perhaps global, may underlie the general tendency to increasingly forego or postpone having children. The polarization in childbearing across labor market positions is an area for future research. Contribution: The study provides new insights into the conundrum of Nordic fertility decline during the 2010s.

Suggested Citation

  • Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk & Gunnar Andersson, 2022. "Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(12), pages 345-358.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:47:y:2022:i:12
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2022.47.12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gunnar Andersson & Lotta Persson & Ognjen Obućina, 2017. "Depressed fertility among descendants of immigrants in Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(39), pages 1149-1184.
    2. Marika Jalovaara & Gerda Neyer & Gunnar Andersson & Johan Dahlberg & Lars Dommermuth & Peter Fallesen & Trude Lappegård, 2019. "Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 563-586, July.
    3. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2022. "Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(2), pages 191-221, May.
    4. John Ermisch, 2021. "English fertility heads south: Understanding the recent decline," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(29), pages 903-916.
    5. Chiara Ludovica Comolli, 2017. "The fertility response to the Great Recession in Europe and the United States: Structural economic conditions and perceived economic uncertainty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(51), pages 1549-1600.
    6. Gunnar Andersson, 2000. "The Impact of Labour-Force Participation on Childbearing Behaviour: Pro-Cyclical Fertility in Sweden during the 1980s and the 1990s," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 293-333, December.
    7. Nathan Seltzer, 2019. "Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1463-1493, August.
    8. Arnstein Aassve & Marco Le Moglie & Letizia Mencarini, 2021. "Trust and fertility in uncertain times," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(1), pages 19-36, January.
    9. Anna Matysiak & Tomáš Sobotka & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 29-64, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2022. "Educational field, economic uncertainty, and fertility decline in Finland in 2010–2019," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Benoît Laplante, 2024. "Policy and Fertility, a Case Study of the Quebec Parental Insurance Plan," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(3), pages 1-34, June.
    3. Martin Bujard & Gunnar Andersson, 2024. "Fertility Declines Near the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence of the 2022 Birth Declines in Germany and Sweden," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Oskar Lindström, 2025. "Uncertainty, resilience, and fertility: Perceived capacity to overcome loss of employment and fertility intentions in Sweden, 2021," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 53(31), pages 1003-1044.
    5. Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Vegard F. Skirbekk & Jessica Nisén, 2024. "Secularization and low fertility: how declining church membership changes couples and their childbearing," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk & Gunnar Andersson, 2025. "Swedish Fertility Developments Before, During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 41(1), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Stefano Cantalini & Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk & Gunnar Andersson, 2024. "Cohabitation and Marriage Formation in Times of Fertility Decline: The Case of Sweden in the Twenty-First Century," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-26, December.
    8. Bernice Kuang & Ann Berrington & Sarah Christison & Hill Kulu, 2024. "Educational trends in cohort fertility by birth order: A comparison of England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(36), pages 1125-1166.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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