IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurpop/v40y2024i1d10.1007_s10680-023-09689-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fertility Declines Near the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence of the 2022 Birth Declines in Germany and Sweden

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Bujard

    (Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB))

  • Gunnar Andersson

    (Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA))

Abstract

Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries faced short-term fertility declines in 2020–2021, a development which did not materialize in the majority of German-speaking and Nordic countries. However, more recent birth statistics show a steep fertility decline in 2022. We aim to provide empirical evidence on the unexpected birth decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden. We rely on monthly birth statistics and present seasonally adjusted monthly Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for Germany and Sweden. We relate the nine-month lagged fertility rates to contextual developments regarding COVID-19. The seasonally adjusted monthly TFR of Germany dropped from 1.5–1.6 in 2021 to 1.4 in early 2022 and again in autumn 2022, a decline of about 10% in several months. In Sweden, the corresponding TFR dropped from about 1.7 in 2021 to 1.5–1.6 in 2022, a decline of almost 10%. There is no association of the fertility trends with changes in unemployment, infection rates, or COVID-19 deaths, but a strong association with the onset of vaccination programmes and the weakening of pandemic-related restrictions. The fertility decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden is remarkable. Common explanations of fertility change during the pandemic do not apply. The association between the onset of mass vaccinations and subsequent fertility decline indicates that women adjusted their behaviour to get vaccinated before becoming pregnant. Fertility decreased as societies were opening up with more normalized life conditions. We provide novel information on fertility declines and the COVID-19-fertility nexus during and in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Bujard & Gunnar Andersson, 2024. "Fertility Declines Near the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence of the 2022 Birth Declines in Germany and Sweden," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:40:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-023-09689-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-023-09689-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10680-023-09689-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10680-023-09689-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
    2. C. L. Comolli & G. Neyer & G. Andersson & L. Dommermuth & P. Fallesen & M. Jalovaara & A. Klængur Jónsson & M. Kolk & T. Lappegård, 2021. "Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 473-520, April.
    3. Siddharth Chandra & Yan-Liang Yu, 2015. "The 1918 influenza pandemic and subsequent birth deficit in Japan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(11), pages 313-326.
    4. Anna Matysiak & Tomáš Sobotka & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 29-64, March.
    5. C. L. Comolli & G. Neyer & G. Andersson & L. Dommermuth & P. Fallesen & M. Jalovaara & A. Klængur Jónsson & M. Kolk & T. Lappegård, 2021. "Correction to: Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 521-521, April.
    6. Alicia Adsera, 2011. "Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe [Où sont les bébés ? Conditions du marché du travail et fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32, February.
    7. Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk & Gunnar Andersson, 2022. "Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(12), pages 345-358.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniele Vignoli & Alessandra Minello & Giacomo Bazzani & Camilla Matera & Chiara Rapallini, 2022. "Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 93-124, March.
    2. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability," SocArXiv 4sjvm, Center for Open Science.
    3. Karel Neels & Leen Marynissen & Jonas Wood, 2024. "Economic Cycles and Entry into Parenthood: Is the Association Changing and Does it Affect Macro-Level Trends? Micro-Level Hazard and Simulation Models of Belgian Fertility Trends, 1960–2010," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-34, December.
    4. Georgios Mavropoulos, 2024. "Brexit and Fertility Implications in the UK and Europe: A Regional DID and Panel Event Study Analysis," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(6), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Vegard Skirbekk & Jessica Nisén, 2024. "Secularization and low fertility: how declining church membership changes couples and their childbearing," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Bernice Kuang & Hill Kulu & Ann Berrington & Sarah Christison, 2024. "Educational trends in cohort fertility by birth order: A comparison of England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(36), pages 1125-1166.
    7. Francesca Luppi & Alessandro Rosina & Bruno Arpino, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(47), pages 1399-1412.
    8. Livia Sz. Oláh & Rudolf Richter & Irena Kotowska, 2023. "Introduction to the Special Collection on The new roles of women and men and implications for families and societies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(29), pages 849-866.
    9. Daniele Vignoli & Alessandra Minello & Giacomo Bazzani & Camilla Matera & Chiara Rapallini, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: The Causal Effect of Narratives of the Future," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2021_05, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    10. Benoît Laplante, 2024. "Policy and Fertility, a Case Study of the Quebec Parental Insurance Plan," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(3), pages 1-34, June.
    11. Francesca Giambona & Laura Grassini & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "Detecting economic insecurity in Italy: a latent transition modelling approach," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(4), pages 815-846, October.
    12. Georgios Mavropoulos, 2024. "What drives period fertility rates during post-recession spells?," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 1-26, December.
    13. repec:osf:socarx:4sjvm_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Stefano Cantalini & Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk & Gunnar Andersson, 2024. "Cohabitation and Marriage Formation in Times of Fertility Decline: The Case of Sweden in the Twenty-First Century," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-26, December.
    15. Raffaele Guetto & Maria Francesca Morabito & Daniele Vignoli & Matthias Vollbracht, 2021. "Media Coverage of the Economy and Fertility," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2021_12, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    16. Arnstein Aassve & Letizia Mencarini & Elena Pirani & Daniele Vignoli, 2023. "The last bastion is falling: Survey evidence of the new demographic reality in Italy," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2023_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    17. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Dirk Konietzka & Philippe Lambert & Vincent Jerald Ramos, 2023. "Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-27, December.
    18. Isabella Buber‐Ennser & Ingrid Setz & Bernhard Riederer, 2024. "Not Even a Pandemic Makes Them Change Their Family Plans: The Impact of COVID‐19 on Fertility Intentions in Austria," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(S1), pages 277-302, July.
    19. Lisbeth Loft, 2022. "The importance of child characteristics: children’s health and mothers’ subsequent childbearing," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 599-616, December.
    20. Janna Bergsvik & Agnes Fauske & Rannveig Kaldager Hart, 2021. "Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi‐) Experimental Literature," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 913-964, December.
    21. Peter Fallesen & Lars Dommermuth & Julia Hellstrand & Emil Simonsen & Lisbeth Trille Gylling Loft & Laust H. Mortensen, 2022. "Research note: comparing ideal family size with observed and forecasted completed cohort fertility in Denmark and Norway," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-031, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:40:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-023-09689-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.