IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurpop/v41y2025i1d10.1007_s10680-025-09744-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Swedish Fertility Developments Before, During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk

    (Stockholm University)

  • Gunnar Andersson

    (Stockholm University)

Abstract

Many affluent societies saw a temporary increase in their fertility rates in 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic. This included a number of countries that had experienced fertility decline during the 2010s, like the Nordic. In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic (2022–2023), fertility rates resumed their previous downward trend. Most research on the pandemic-related fertility trends has relied on aggregate data. Although a few studies have examined group-specific trends, hardly any have covered the post-pandemic years—an important step for revealing whether any uptick in 2021 had a lasting impact on fertility structures. Our study attends to this objective, with a focus on parity and group-specific fertility trends in Sweden before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. We apply event-history techniques to Swedish register data to unveil annual trends of birth risks in 2010–2022, for all Swedish-born women of childbearing age. First- and second-birth risks in 2015–2022 are analysed further across socio-demographic factors. Our study reveals that the “pandemic pattern” of fertility increase in 2021 and drop in 2022 was visible among subgroups with better possibilities to prepone already intended births. For example, the fertility increase and subsequent drop was particularly evident for mothers with young children and women with higher education and incomes. The pandemic fertility pattern reflects temporary changes in the timing of childbearing, more specifically a preponement of births that occurred in 2021 with resulting shortfall in 2022. The continued fall in fertility rates in 2023 should be viewed in the light of the long-term fertility decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk & Gunnar Andersson, 2025. "Swedish Fertility Developments Before, During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 41(1), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:41:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-025-09744-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-025-09744-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10680-025-09744-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10680-025-09744-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:sae:mrxval:v:38:y:2004:i:2:p:747-774 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Debra Friedman & Michael Hechter & Satoshi Kanazawa, 1994. "A theory of the value of children," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(3), pages 375-401, August.
    3. C. L. Comolli & G. Neyer & G. Andersson & L. Dommermuth & P. Fallesen & M. Jalovaara & A. Klængur Jónsson & M. Kolk & T. Lappegård, 2021. "Correction to: Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 521-521, April.
    4. Martin Bujard & Gunnar Andersson, 2024. "Fertility Declines Near the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence of the 2022 Birth Declines in Germany and Sweden," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Ásdís Arnalds & Ari Klængur Jónsson & Sunna Símonardóttir, 2025. "The 2021 Baby Boom in Iceland: Exploring the Role of a Parental Leave Reform and the COVID-19 Pandemic," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 41(1), pages 1-24, December.
    6. Anna Kurowska & Anna Matysiak & Beata Osiewalska, 2023. "Working from Home During Covid-19 Pandemic and Changes to Fertility Intentions Among Parents," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-31, December.
    7. Stefano Cantalini & Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk & Gunnar Andersson, 2024. "Cohabitation and Marriage Formation in Times of Fertility Decline: The Case of Sweden in the Twenty-First Century," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-26, December.
    8. Martin Kolk & Sven Drefahl & Matthew Wallace & Gunnar Andersson, 2022. "Excess mortality and COVID-19 in Sweden in 2020: A demographic account," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 317-348.
    9. Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 223-260.
    10. Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk & Gunnar Andersson, 2022. "Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(12), pages 345-358.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Arpino, Bruno & Rosina, Alessandro, 2022. "Dismissed and newly planned babies during the COVID-19 pandemic. A study of the motivations behind changes in fertility plans and behaviors in Italy," SocArXiv qpwba, Center for Open Science.
    2. Raffaele Guetto & Valentina Tocchioni & Daniele Vignoli, 2023. "The Causal Impact of Temporary Employment on First Births in Italy: An Update," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2023_06, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    3. Daniele Vignoli & Alessandra Minello & Giacomo Bazzani & Camilla Matera & Chiara Rapallini, 2022. "Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 93-124, March.
    4. Anna Kurowska & Anna Matysiak & Beata Osiewalska, 2023. "Working from Home During Covid-19 Pandemic and Changes to Fertility Intentions Among Parents," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-31, December.
    5. Bernice Kuang & Hill Kulu & Ann Berrington & Sarah Christison, 2024. "Educational trends in cohort fertility by birth order: A comparison of England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(36), pages 1125-1166.
    6. Karel Neels & Leen Marynissen & Jonas Wood, 2024. "Economic Cycles and Entry into Parenthood: Is the Association Changing and Does it Affect Macro-Level Trends? Micro-Level Hazard and Simulation Models of Belgian Fertility Trends, 1960–2010," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-34, December.
    7. Anna Matysiak & Tomáš Sobotka & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 29-64, March.
    8. Benoît Laplante, 2024. "Policy and Fertility, a Case Study of the Quebec Parental Insurance Plan," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(3), pages 1-34, June.
    9. Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Vegard Skirbekk & Jessica Nisén, 2024. "Secularization and low fertility: how declining church membership changes couples and their childbearing," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    10. Maxim Kan, 2023. "Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-39, December.
    11. Danilo Bolano & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "Union formation under conditions of uncertainty: The objective and subjective sides of employment uncertainty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(5), pages 141-186.
    12. Giammarco Alderotti & Raffaele Guetto & Paolo Barbieri & Stefani Scherer & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "Unstable Employment Careers and Completed Fertility before and after Labour Market Deregulation in Italy," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2022_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    13. Stefano Cantalini & Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk & Gunnar Andersson, 2024. "Cohabitation and Marriage Formation in Times of Fertility Decline: The Case of Sweden in the Twenty-First Century," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-26, December.
    14. Chiara L. Comolli & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Spread-ing uncertainty, shrinking birth rates," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_08, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    15. Martin Bujard & Gunnar Andersson, 2024. "Fertility Declines Near the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence of the 2022 Birth Declines in Germany and Sweden," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-21, December.
    16. Nicholas Campisi & Hill Kulu & Júlia Mikolai & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2024. "Urban–Rural Disparities in the Transition to Parenthood During Times of Uncertainty: A Multilevel Perspective on Finland," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-31, December.
    17. Hande Inanc, 2015. "Unemployment and the timing of parenthood," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(7), pages 219-250.
    18. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    19. Álvarez Llorente, Gema, 1997. "Decisiones de fecundidad y de participación en el mercado de trabajo de la mujer en España," DE - Documentos de Trabajo. Economía. DE 3884, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    20. Arnstein Aassve & Letizia Mencarini & Elena Pirani & Daniele Vignoli, 2023. "The last bastion is falling: Survey evidence of the new demographic reality in Italy," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2023_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:41:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-025-09744-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.