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Un réexamen de la relation non linéaire entre déficits budgétaires et croissance économique

  • Alexandru Minea
  • Patrick Villieu

We propose a simple theoretical model showing the existence of non-linear effects of fiscal deficits on economic growth, depending on the public debt to gdp ratio. For low debt values, raising deficit is growth increasing, as the debt burden raise may be absorbed by a decrease in government consumption. When public debt is high, government can no longer reduce public consumption, and productive spending must negatively adjust, therefore raising deficits becomes growth-reducing. We aim confirming the robustness of our results in an empirical analysis using data from 19 oecd countries. Estimations exhibit the existence of a non-linear effect of fiscal deficits on economic growth, depending on the public debt ratio. Classification JEL : H62, H63, E62

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 59 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 561-570

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Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_593_0561
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economique.htm

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  1. Andres Gonzalez & Timo Terasvirta & Dick van Dijk, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," Research Paper Series 165, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  2. Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin, 2008. "Threshold Effects in the Public Capital Productivity: An International Panel Smooth Transition Approach," Working Papers halshs-00724208, HAL.
  3. Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2009. "Persistent Deficit, Growth and Indeterminacy; the GRPF Revisited," Post-Print halshs-00370742, HAL.
  4. Sala-I-Martin, X. & Barro, R.J., 1991. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," Papers 640, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  5. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
  6. Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 7460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," CEPR Discussion Papers 599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2008. "Faut-il financer l'investissement public par emprunt? Les enseignements d'un modèle de croissance endogène," Post-Print halshs-00261090, HAL.
  9. Sutherland, Alan, 1997. "Fiscal crises and aggregate demand: can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 147-162, August.
  10. David Aschauer, 1988. "Is public expenditure productive?," Staff Memoranda 88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Feldstein, Martin, 1982. "Government deficits and aggregate demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
  12. Futagami, Koichi & Iwaisako, Tatsuro & Ohdoi, Ryoji, 2008. "Debt Policy Rule, Productive Government Spending, And Multiple Growth Paths," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 445-462, September.
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