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Investissement public et effets non linéaires des déficits budgétaires

  • Alexandru Minea

    (LEO, Université d’Orléans)

  • Patrick Villieu

    (LEO, Université d’Orléans)

Dans cet article, nous proposons un modèle théorique simple dans lequel l’impact du déficit budgétaire sur les dépenses publiques d’investissement dépend du niveau de dette publique (en pourcentage du PIB). Lorsque la dette publique est faible, l’impact du déficit est positif, car la charge de la dette peut être très élevée, en revanche, il n’est plus possible de réduire les dépenses de consommation, et l’ajustement s’opère pas les dépenses d’investissement, de sorte que la relation entre déficit et dépenses publiques d’investissement devient négative. Une analyse empirique menée dans un modèle économétrique avec effets de seuil en panel sur 22 pays de l’OCDE vient confirmer cette non linéarité.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) with number 2009031.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2009031
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  1. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March.
  2. Martin Feldstein, 1980. "Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 0435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics.
  5. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
  6. Michael Kell, 2001. "An Assessment of Fiscal Rules in the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 01/91, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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