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Reevaluating the German labor market miracle

Author

Listed:
  • Burda Michael C.

    (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany)

  • Seele Stefanie

    (INSM GmbH, Berlin, Germany)

Abstract

From 2003 to 2018, employment in Germany increased by 7.3 million, or by 19.3 % – growth not observed since unification. This “labor market miracle” was marked by a persistent and significant expansion of both part-time and low-wage jobs and a deterioration in pay for these jobs, while total hours hardly increased; overall wage growth returned only after 2011. These developments followed in the wake of the landmark Hartz reforms (2003–2005). A modified framework of Katz and Murphy (1992) predicts negative correlation of wages with both relative employment and participation across cells in the period following these reforms. In contrast, wage moderation alone should generate positive association of wages and participation. Our findings are most consistent with a persistent, positive labor supply shock at given working-age population in a cleared labor market. An alternative perspective of labor markets, the search and matching model, also points to the Hartz IV reforms as the central driver of the German labor market miracle.

Suggested Citation

  • Burda Michael C. & Seele Stefanie, 2020. "Reevaluating the German labor market miracle," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 139-179, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:21:y:2020:i:2:p:139-179
    DOI: 10.1515/ger-054-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Angelo Leogrande & Alberto Costantiello, 2023. "The Labor Force Participation Rate in the Context of ESG Models at World Level," Working Papers hal-04114330, HAL.
    3. Neffke, Frank & Nedelkoska, Ljubica & Wiederhold, Simon, 2024. "Skill mismatch and the costs of job displacement," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(2).
    4. Christian Hutter & Francesco Carbonero & Sabine Klinger & Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber, 2022. "Which factors were behind Germany's labour market upswing? A data‐driven approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1052-1076, October.
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    6. Tinh Doan & Liana Leach & Lyndall Strazdins, 2025. "The Economic Costs of Men's Long Work Hours for Women: Evidence on the Gender Wage Earnings Gap from Australia and Germany," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 179(2), pages 1073-1100, September.
    7. Hochmuth, Brigitte & Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian & Gartner, Hermann, 2021. "Hartz IV and the decline of German unemployment: A macroeconomic evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Lukas Vogel, 2025. "Reforms and Investments – The Benefits of Join Implementation," European Economy - Economic Briefs 084, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Lehmann, Robert & Zarges, Lara, 2025. "What drives German trend output growth? A sectoral view," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    10. Jessica Ordemann & Friedhelm Pfeiffer, 2022. "The evolution of educational wage differentials for women and men in Germany, from 1996 to 2019," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 56(1), pages 1-12, December.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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