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Estimating Dynamic Income Responses to Tax Reform

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  • Holmlund Bertil

    (Uppsala University)

  • Söderström Martin

    (Ministry of Finance, Sweden)

Abstract

We study income responses to income tax changes by using a large panel of Swedish tax payers over the period 1991–2002. Changes in statutory tax rates as well as changes in tax bracket thresholds provide exogenous variations in tax rates that can be used to identify income responses. We estimate dynamic income models which allow us to distinguish between short-run and long-run effects in a straightforward fashion. For men, the estimates of the long-run elasticity of income with respect to the net-of-tax rate hover in a range between 0.10 and 0.30. The estimates for women are statistically insignificant. We simulate the fiscal consequences of a tax reform that reduces the top marginal tax rate by five percentage points. Such a reform may have negligible effects on tax revenues when the interactions between income taxes and other taxes are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmlund Bertil & Söderström Martin, 2011. "Estimating Dynamic Income Responses to Tax Reform," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-38, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:11:y:2011:i:1:n:71
    DOI: 10.2202/1935-1682.2891
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    2. Egbert Jongen & Maaike Stoel, 2016. "The elasticity of taxable income in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 337, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Thor O. Thoresen & Trine E. Vattø, 2013. "Validation of structural labor supply model by the elasticity of taxable income," Discussion Papers 738, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    4. Carina Neisser, 2021. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income: A Meta-Regression Analysis [The top 1% in international and historical perspective]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(640), pages 3365-3391.
    5. Egbert L. W. Jongen & Maaike Stoel, 2019. "The Elasticity of Taxable Labour Income in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 167(4), pages 359-386, December.
    6. Jos順鬩x Sanz-Sanz & Mar𨁁rrazola-Vacas & Nuria Rueda-L󰥺 & Desiderio Romero-Jordᮠ, 2015. "Reported gross income and marginal tax rates: estimation of the behavioural reactions of Spanish taxpayers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 466-484, January.
    7. Peter Ericson & Lennart Flood & Nizamul Islam, 2015. "Taxes, wages and working hours," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 503-535, September.
    8. Jongen, Egbert L. W. & Stoel, Maaike, 2019. "The Elasticity of Taxable Labour Income in the Netherlands," IZA Discussion Papers 12090, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Miao, Dingquan & Selin, Håkan & Söderström, Martin, 2022. "Earnings responses to even higher taxes," Working Paper Series 2022:12, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    10. Zhiyang Jia & Trine E. Vattø, 2016. "The path of labor supply adjustment. Sources of lagged responses to tax-benefit reforms," Discussion Papers 854, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

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