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Regional convergence, spatial scale, and spatial dependence: Evidence from homicides and personal injuries in Colombia 2010–2018

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  • Felipe Santos‐Marquez
  • Carlos Mendez

Abstract

This paper studies regional convergence and spatial dependence of homicides and personal injuries in Colombia. In particular, through the lens of both classical and distributional convergence frameworks, two spatial scales are contrasted: municipalities and states. For both homicides and personal injuries, sigma convergence is only found at the state level. In contrast, beta convergence is found at both state and municipal level. The non‐parametric convergence framework highlights further contrasting patterns. For homicides at the state level, four convergence clusters are found, while two clusters are present at the municipal level. For personal injuries, at both spatial scales, two clusters are found. Moreover, significant and robust spatial autocorrelation is found only at the municipal level. Overall, these results re‐emphasize the role of spatial disaggregation as well as spatial dependence when evaluating regional convergence and designing regional development policies. The paper concludes with a discussion about the relationship between crime types and their relevance to current and future development policies. En este artículo se estudia la convergencia regional y la dependencia espacial de los homicidios y las lesiones personales en Colombia. En particular, mirándolas a través de la lente de los marcos de convergencia clásicos y distributivos, se contrastan dos escalas espaciales como la municipal y la estatal. Tanto para los homicidios como para las lesiones personales sólo se encontró la convergencia sigma a nivel estatal. Por el contrario, la convergencia beta se encontró tanto a nivel estatal como municipal. El marco de convergencia no paramétrica pone de relieve otros patrones de contraste adicionales. En el caso de los homicidios a nivel estatal, se encontraron cuatro conglomerados de convergencia, mientras que a nivel municipal se encontraron dos. Para las lesiones personales se encontraron dos conglomerados en ambas escalas espaciales. Además, sólo se encontró una autocorrelación espacial significativa y robusta a nivel municipal. En general, estos resultados destacan aún más el papel de la desagregación espacial, así como el de la dependencia espacial, al evaluar la convergencia regional y diseñar políticas de desarrollo regional. El artículo concluye con una discusión sobre la relación entre los tipos de delito y su pertinencia para las políticas de desarrollo actuales y futuras. 本稿では、コロンビアにおける殺人と傷害の地域収束と空間依存性を研究する。具体的には、古典的および分布的な収束フレームワークの両方の見方を通して、2つの空間的スケール、すなわち自治体と州を比較する。殺人と傷害の両方で、シグマ収束は州レベルにおいてのみ認められる。これとは対照的に、ベータ収束は州および自治体レベルの両方で認められる。ノンパラメトリック収束フレームワークはさらに対照的なパターンを強調する。州レベルでの殺人では、4つの収束クラスターが認められたが、自治体レベルでは2つのクラスターが存在した。人身傷害では、両方の空間的スケールで2つのクラスターが認められた。さらに、顕著で頑健な空間的自己相関は、自治体レベルにおいてのみ認められる。以上、これらの結果は、地域収束の評価と、地域開発政策の立案における、空間的依存性だけでなく空間的分散の役割も改めて強調するものである。最後に、犯罪の種類と現在及び将来の開発政策との関連性について考察する。

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe Santos‐Marquez & Carlos Mendez, 2021. "Regional convergence, spatial scale, and spatial dependence: Evidence from homicides and personal injuries in Colombia 2010–2018," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 1162-1184, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rgscpp:v:13:y:2021:i:4:p:1162-1184
    DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12356
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    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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