IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v22y2014i1p131-150.html

“Out of Sync”: The Breakdown of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the EU

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios D. Thomakos
  • Fotis Papailias

Abstract

Empirical evidence is presented about the properties of economic sentiment cycle synchronization for Germany, France and the UK and they are compared with the “crisis” countries Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. Instead of using output data it is preferred to focus on the economic sentiment indicator (ESI), a forward-looking, survey-based variable consistently available from 1985. The cyclical nature of the ESI allowed the analyis of the presence or not of synchronicity among country pairs before and after the onset of the financial crisis. The results show that ESI movements were mostly synchronous before 2008 but they exhibit a breakdown after 2008, with this feature being more prominent in Greece. It is also found that, after the political maneuvering of the past two years, a cycle re-integration or re-synchronization is on the way. An analysis of the evolution of the synchronicity measures indicates that they can potentially be used to identify sudden phase breaks in ESI co-movement and they can offer a signal as to when the EU economies are getting “in” or “out of sync”.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Fotis Papailias, 2014. "“Out of Sync”: The Breakdown of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the EU," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 131-150, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:22:y:2014:i:1:p:131-150
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/roie.12101
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
    2. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    4. Luca Zanin, 2010. "The relationship between changes in the Economic Sentiment Indicator and real GDP growth: a time-varying coefficient approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 837-846.
    5. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity In Real Time: The Role Of Confidence Indicators," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210(1), pages 90-97, October.
    6. Sowell, Fallaw, 1996. "Optimal Tests for Parameter Instability in the Generalized Method of Moments Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1085-1107, September.
    7. Harding, Don, 2008. "Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points," MPRA Paper 33583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Sarah Gelper & Christophe Croux, 2010. "On the Construction of the European Economic Sentiment Indicator," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 47-62, February.
    9. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2003. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point: A Corrigendum," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 395-397, January.
    10. Ghonghadze, Jaba & Lux, Thomas, 2009. "Modeling the dynamics of EU economic sentiment indicators: an interaction-based approach," Kiel Working Papers 1487, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    11. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bas Aarle & Cindy Moons, 2017. "Sentiment and Uncertainty Fluctuations and Their Effects on the Euro Area Business Cycle," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 225-251, November.
    2. Fotis Papailias & Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Jiadong Liu, 2017. "The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities, forecasting and hedging strategies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 255-282, February.
    3. Andrea Bonilla Bolanos, 2014. "An Examination of the Convergence in the Output of South American Countries: The Influence of the Region’s Integration Projects," Working Papers 1424, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Etienne (GATE Lyon St-Etienne), Université de Lyon.
    4. Pedro André Cerqueira & Rodrigo Martins, 2025. "The Economy in People’s Minds: are EU Countries Connected?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(5), pages 1439-1461, November.
    5. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Sentiment and Aggregate Activity: A Tale of Two European Cycles," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 445-462, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guidolin, Massimo & Tam, Yu Man, 2013. "A yield spread perspective on the great financial crisis: Break-point test evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 18-39.
    2. Sen, Amit & Hall, Alastair, 1999. "Two further aspects of some new tests for structural stability," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 431-443, December.
    3. Kurozumi Eiji, 2015. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes with Non-Homogeneous Regressors," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, January.
    4. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    5. Thomas Paul & Thomas Walther & André Küster-Simic, 2022. "Empirical analysis of the illiquidity premia of German real estate securities," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 203-260, June.
    6. Caraballo Pou, M. Angeles & Dabus, Carlos, 2008. "Nominal rigidities, skewness and inflation regimes," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 16-33, March.
    7. Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2014. "Is there any relationship between the rates of interest and profit in the U.S. economy?," Studies in Economics 1416, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    8. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Modelling UK Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality and Monetary Policy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 46, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. Amr S. Hosny & N. Kundan Kishor & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2015. "Understanding the dynamics of the macroeconomic trilemma," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 32-64, January.
    11. Ahmed Ali & Granberg Mark & Troster Victor & Uddin Gazi Salah, 2022. "Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 155-172, February.
    12. Petrenko, Victoria (Петренко, ВИктория) & Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Turuntseva, Maria (Турунцева, Мария), 2016. "Testing of Changes in Persistence and Their Effect on the Forecasting Quality [Тестирование Изменения Инерционности И Влияние На Качество Прогнозов]," Working Papers 542, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    13. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    14. Link, Albert N. & van Hasselt, Martijn, 2019. "On the transfer of technology from universities: The impact of the Bayh–Dole Act of 1980 on the institutionalization of university research," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 472-481.
    15. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Osborn, D.R. & Sensier, M., 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    16. Gagliardini, Patrick & Trojani, Fabio & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Robust GMM tests for structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 139-182.
    17. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2008. "The turning black tide: energy prices and the Canadian dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 737-759, August.
    18. Tino Berger, 2011. "Estimating Europe’s natural rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 521-536, April.
    19. Broadstock, David C. & Cao, Hong & Zhang, Dayong, 2012. "Oil shocks and their impact on energy related stocks in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1888-1895.
    20. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:22:y:2014:i:1:p:131-150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.