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“Out of Sync”: The Breakdown of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the EU

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  • Dimitrios D. Thomakos
  • Fotis Papailias

Abstract

Empirical evidence is presented about the properties of economic sentiment cycle synchronization for Germany, France and the UK and they are compared with the “crisis” countries Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. Instead of using output data it is preferred to focus on the economic sentiment indicator (ESI), a forward-looking, survey-based variable consistently available from 1985. The cyclical nature of the ESI allowed the analyis of the presence or not of synchronicity among country pairs before and after the onset of the financial crisis. The results show that ESI movements were mostly synchronous before 2008 but they exhibit a breakdown after 2008, with this feature being more prominent in Greece. It is also found that, after the political maneuvering of the past two years, a cycle re-integration or re-synchronization is on the way. An analysis of the evolution of the synchronicity measures indicates that they can potentially be used to identify sudden phase breaks in ESI co-movement and they can offer a signal as to when the EU economies are getting “in” or “out of sync”.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Fotis Papailias, 2014. "“Out of Sync”: The Breakdown of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the EU," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 131-150, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:22:y:2014:i:1:p:131-150
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Sentiment and Aggregate Activity: A Tale of Two European Cycles," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 445-462, March.
    2. Bas Aarle & Cindy Moons, 2017. "Sentiment and Uncertainty Fluctuations and Their Effects on the Euro Area Business Cycle," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 225-251, November.
    3. Fotis Papailias & Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Jiadong Liu, 2017. "The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities, forecasting and hedging strategies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 255-282, February.
    4. Andrea Bonilla Bolanos, 2014. "An Examination of the Convergence in the Output of South American Countries: The Influence of the Region’s Integration Projects," Working Papers 1424, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.

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