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The relationship between changes in the Economic Sentiment Indicator and real GDP growth: a time-varying coefficient approach


  • Luca Zanin

    () (Prometeia)


The aim of this paper is to capture the time-varying effects of the relationship between changes in the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and economic growth. We use penalized regression splines to estimate the different point effects over time. Evidence from six European countries supports the idea that the elasticity of the ESI is time-varying.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Zanin, 2010. "The relationship between changes in the Economic Sentiment Indicator and real GDP growth: a time-varying coefficient approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 837-846.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00634

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:12:y:2007:i:16:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Maindonald, John, 2006. "Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 16(b03).
    3. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
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    5. John A. Cotsomitis & Andy C. C. Kwan, 2006. "Can Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? Evidence from the European COmmission Business and Consumer Surveys," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 597-610, January.
    6. Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
    7. Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 59-78.
    8. Sarah Gelper & Christophe Croux, 2010. "On the Construction of the European Economic Sentiment Indicator," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 47-62, February.
    9. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    10. Qiao, Zhuo & McAleer, Michael & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2009. "Linear and nonlinear causality between changes in consumption and consumer attitudes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 161-164, March.
    11. Victor Ginsburgh & Israel Zang, 2007. "Bundling by Competitors and the Sharing of Profits," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 12(16), pages 1-9.
    12. Frank Westerhoff, 2008. "Consumer sentiment and business cycles: a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation scenario," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1201-1205.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:soinre:v:135:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1490-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Nataša Erjavec & Petar Sorić & Mirjana Čižmešija, 2016. "Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia: Is economic sentiment the missing link?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 555-579.
    3. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Fotis Papailias, 2014. "“Out of Sync”: The Breakdown of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the EU," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 131-150, February.

    More about this item


    Economic Sentiment Indicator; Real GDP Growth; Thin Plate Regression Splines; Time-Varying Coefficient Model;

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling


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