IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/metroe/v72y2021i2p365-387.html

Capital inflows, sustained investment surges and the role of external economies of scale in a developing economy

Author

Listed:
  • Arslan Razmi

Abstract

Standard open economy macro models with unemployment predict a contractionary short‐run effect of international capital inflows. Empirical evidence, moreover, often associates such inflows with short‐term booms and developing country policy makers frequently go out of their way to welcome foreign capital. Employing a portfolio balance framework, this paper distinguishes between international financial (i.e., bond) and “real” (i.e., equity) flows to explore the different consequences for capital accumulation that may follow over the medium‐run. The presence of external economies of scale generates multiple equilibria and different kinds of capital flows may push investment in one direction or the other for sustained periods of time.

Suggested Citation

  • Arslan Razmi, 2021. "Capital inflows, sustained investment surges and the role of external economies of scale in a developing economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 365-387, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:72:y:2021:i:2:p:365-387
    DOI: 10.1111/meca.12324
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12324
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/meca.12324?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elise Brezis & Daniel Tsiddon, 1998. "Economic growth, leadership and capital flows: the leapfrogging effect," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 261-277.
    2. Reinhart, C.M. & Dunaway, S., 1996. "Dealing with Capital Inflows. Are There Any Lessons?," Research Paper 28, World Institute for Development Economics Research.
    3. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
    4. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    6. Corden, W. Max, 1995. "Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226115917.
    7. Emiliano Libman & Juan Antonio Montecino & Arslan Razmi, 2019. "Sustained investment surges," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1071-1095.
    8. Klaus Desmet, 2002. "A Simple Dynamic Model of Uneven Development and Overtaking," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 894-918, October.
    9. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    10. Peter Skott & Jaime Ros, 1997. "The “Big Push” in an Open Economy with Nontradable Inputs," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 149-162, September.
    11. Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Capital Inflows and Booms in Asset Prices: Evidence from a Panel of Countries," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 8, pages 255-290, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 1998. "Direct Foreign Investment and North-South Trade: Uneven Development or Convergent Growth?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Sapsford & John-ren Chen (ed.), Development Economics and Policy, chapter 14, pages 261-286, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2016. "Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 565-569, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Teimouri, Sheida & Zietz, Joachim, 2018. "The impact of surges in net private capital inflows on manufacturing, investment, and unemployment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 158-170.
    2. Mercado, Rogelio, 2020. "Are capital inflows expansionary or contractionary in the Philippines?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    4. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    5. Emiliano Libman & Juan Antonio Montecino & Arslan Razmi, 2019. "Sustained investment surges," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1071-1095.
    6. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2013. "Capital Flows and Private Investment in Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(3, Cierre), pages 65-99.
    7. Firat Demir & Arslan Razmi, 2022. "The Real Exchange Rate And Development Theory, Evidence, Issues And Challenges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 386-428, April.
    8. Prabheesh, K.P. & Prakash, Branesh & Vuniivi, Viliame, 2023. "Assessment of Fiji’s exchange rate," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1282-1305.
    9. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou & Valérie Mignon & Florian Morvillier, 2024. "Reconciling Contrasting Views on the Growth Effect of Currency Undervaluations," Working Papers 2024-06, CEPII research center.
    10. Philipp Harms & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2013. "The Growth Effects of Greenfield Investment and Mergers and Acquisitions: Econometric Investigation and Implication for MENA Countries," Working Papers 794, Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2013.
    11. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    12. Li, Xiang & Su, Dan, 2022. "Surges and instability: The maturity shortening channel," IWH Discussion Papers 23/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2022.
    13. Igan, Deniz & Kutan, Ali M. & Mirzaei, Ali, 2020. "The real effects of capital inflows in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    14. Charnikat, Charnikat & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Granger-causal relationship between real exchange rate and economic growth: Malaysia as a case study," MPRA Paper 108939, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. John Williamson, 2009. "Exchange Rate Economics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 123-146, February.
    16. Lane, Philip, 2015. "Macro-Financial Stability under EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 10776, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. de Souza, Joao Paulo A., 2015. "Evidence of growth complementarity between agriculture and industry in developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-18.
    18. Jakob de Haan & Kersten Stamm & Shu Yu, 2024. "Drivers of Investment Accelerations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11100, CESifo.
    19. Couharde, Cécile & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2025. "Reconciling contrasting views on the growth effect of currency misalignments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    20. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2010. "Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-356, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:72:y:2021:i:2:p:365-387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0026-1386 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.