Understanding Migration Dynamics in Taiwan's New Town Development: The Role of Housing Affordability and Infrastructure

As suburbanization accelerates globally, large‐scale developments—such as new towns and redevelopment zones—are increasingly used by policymakers to alleviate urban congestion and promote spatially balanced growth. While theoretically offering superior infrastructure and living environments, such projects are complex, capital‐intensive, and exposed to political and market uncertainties that can lead to misalignment between planning goals and outcomes. This study offers the first empirical analysis of population migration dynamics within the context of a large‐scale new town development project. Focusing on Taiwan's National Taipei University Special District (NTPUSD), this study examines inter‐district migration patterns using administrative data, with particular attention to the role of housing prices, commute times, and infrastructure access. The findings show that lower housing prices—especially when combined with shorter commutes—are significant drivers of migration. High‐income households are more sensitive to price differences, while middle‐income households move from moderately priced areas to upgrade housing. The price effect is minimal in low‐income districts. Migration patterns also evolved over time: early migrants were predominantly young households seeking affordability, whereas later waves were influenced more by improved amenities and transport. These results offer important insights for urban planners and policymakers managing suburban growth and integration.