IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/growch/v56y2025i4ne70073.html

Understanding Migration Dynamics in Taiwan's New Town Development: The Role of Housing Affordability and Infrastructure

Author

Listed:
  • Chien‐Wen Peng
  • Yong‐Jyun Tu
  • Chien‐Hao Fu

Abstract

As suburbanization accelerates globally, large‐scale developments—such as new towns and redevelopment zones—are increasingly used by policymakers to alleviate urban congestion and promote spatially balanced growth. While theoretically offering superior infrastructure and living environments, such projects are complex, capital‐intensive, and exposed to political and market uncertainties that can lead to misalignment between planning goals and outcomes. This study offers the first empirical analysis of population migration dynamics within the context of a large‐scale new town development project. Focusing on Taiwan's National Taipei University Special District (NTPUSD), this study examines inter‐district migration patterns using administrative data, with particular attention to the role of housing prices, commute times, and infrastructure access. The findings show that lower housing prices—especially when combined with shorter commutes—are significant drivers of migration. High‐income households are more sensitive to price differences, while middle‐income households move from moderately priced areas to upgrade housing. The price effect is minimal in low‐income districts. Migration patterns also evolved over time: early migrants were predominantly young households seeking affordability, whereas later waves were influenced more by improved amenities and transport. These results offer important insights for urban planners and policymakers managing suburban growth and integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Chien‐Wen Peng & Yong‐Jyun Tu & Chien‐Hao Fu, 2025. "Understanding Migration Dynamics in Taiwan's New Town Development: The Role of Housing Affordability and Infrastructure," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:growch:v:56:y:2025:i:4:n:e70073
    DOI: 10.1111/grow.70073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.70073
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/grow.70073?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Ermisch & Elizabeth Washbrook, 2012. "Residential Mobility: Wealth, Demographic and Housing Market Effects," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 483-499, November.
    2. Thurston Lawrence & Yezer Anthony M. J., 1994. "Causality in the Suburbanization of Population and Employment," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 105-118, January.
    3. Xuewen Tan, 2010. "New-Town Policy and Development in China," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 47-58, May.
    4. Eichholtz, Piet & Lindenthal, Thies, 2014. "Demographics, human capital, and the demand for housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 19-32.
    5. Shu‐Hen Chiang, 2012. "The Source of Metropolitan Growth: The Role of Commuting," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 143-166, March.
    6. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
    7. Mills, Edwin S. & Price, Richard, 1984. "Metropolitan suburbanization and central city problems," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, January.
    8. Berger, Mark C. & Blomquist, Glenn C., 1992. "Mobility and destination in migration decisions: The roles of earnings, quality of life, and housing prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 37-59, March.
    9. Valletta, Robert G., 2013. "House lock and structural unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 86-97.
    10. Jeanty, P. Wilner & Partridge, Mark & Irwin, Elena, 2010. "Estimation of a spatial simultaneous equation model of population migration and housing price dynamics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 343-352, September.
    11. Zackary B. Hawley & Geoffrey K. Turnbull, 2019. "Social Interaction and Urban Location Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 1-26, July.
    12. Chan, Sewin, 2001. "Spatial Lock-in: Do Falling House Prices Constrain Residential Mobility?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 567-586, May.
    13. Bricker, Jesse & Bucks, Brian, 2016. "Negative home equity, economic insecurity, and household mobility over the Great Recession," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-12.
    14. Kiel, Katherine A., 1994. "The Impact of House Price Appreciation on Household Mobility," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 92-108, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meekes, Jordy & Hassink, Wolter H.J., 2019. "The role of the housing market in workers′ resilience to job displacement after firm bankruptcy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 41-65.
    2. Meekes, Jordy & Hassink, Wolter, 2017. "The Role of the Housing Market in Workers' Resilience to Job Displacement after Firm Bankruptcy," IZA Discussion Papers 10894, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Brown, Jennifer & Matsa, David A., 2020. "Locked in by leverage: Job search during the housing crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 623-648.
    4. Xian Zheng, 2015. "Expectation, volatility and liquidity in the housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(37), pages 4020-4035, August.
    5. Sander van Veldhuizen & Bart Voogt & Benedikt Vogt & Andrea Morescalchi, 2017. "Negative home equity and job mobility," CPB Discussion Paper 345.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. John P. Harding & Jing Li & Stuart S. Rosenthal & Xirui Zhang, 2022. "Forced moves and home maintenance: The amplifying effects of mortgage payment burden on underwater homeowners," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 498-533, June.
    7. Chan, Sewin & Haughwout, Andrew & Tracy, Joseph, 2015. "How Mortgage Finance Affects the Urban Landscape," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 987-1045, Elsevier.
    8. Plantinga, Andrew J. & Détang-Dessendre, Cécile & Hunt, Gary L. & Piguet, Virginie, 2013. "Housing prices and inter-urban migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 296-306.
    9. Xinrui Wang & Eddie Chi-Man Hui & Jiuxia Sun, 2018. "Population Aging, Mobility, and Real Estate Price: Evidence from Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-13, September.
    10. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2025. "House price co-movement and labor migration: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    11. Yong Tu & Seow Ong & Ying Han, 2009. "Turnovers and Housing Price Dynamics: Evidence from Singapore Condominium Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 254-274, April.
    12. Bloze, Gintautas & Skak, Morten, 2016. "Housing equity, residential mobility and commuting," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 156-165.
    13. Sander van Veldhuizen & Bart Voogt & Benedikt Vogt & Andrea Morescalchi, 2017. "Negative home equity and job mobility," CPB Discussion Paper 345, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    14. Foote, Andrew, 2016. "The effects of negative house price changes on migration: Evidence across U.S. housing downturns," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 292-299.
    15. Hyun, Dongwoo & Milcheva, Stanimira, 2018. "Spatial dependence in apartment transaction prices during boom and bust," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 36-45.
    16. Siddharth Kothari & Itay Saporta Eksten & Edison Yu, 2013. "The (Un)importance of Geographical Mobility in the Great Recession"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 553-563, July.
    17. Quigley, John M., 2002. "Transactions Costs and Housing Markets," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt6pz8p6zt, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    18. Sander van Veldhuizen & Benedikt Vogt & Bart Voogt, 2016. "Negative Home Equity and Household Mobility: Evidence from Administrative Data," CPB Discussion Paper 323, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    19. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Dennett, Julia, 2013. "Are American homeowners locked into their houses? The impact of housing market conditions on state-to-state migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 322-337.
    20. Xin DONG & Weihua ZHOU, 2016. "Housing Affordability and Permanent Migration Intention of Rural-Urban Migrants," Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies (CJUES), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 1-12, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:growch:v:56:y:2025:i:4:n:e70073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0017-4815 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.