IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/glopol/v15y2024i5p823-837.html

Will the poverty‐related UN Sustainable Development Goals be met? New projections

Author

Listed:
  • Arief Anshory Yusuf
  • Zuzy Anna
  • Ahmad Komarulzaman
  • Andy Sumner

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss the literature and consider the historical relationship between growth and a set of poverty‐related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically extreme monetary poverty, undernutrition, stunting, child mortality, maternal mortality and access to clean water. We then make projections for 2030. We find that it is very likely that global poverty‐related SDGs will not be met and by a considerable distance. The implication of this, we argue, is that more emphasis is needed on both policies to raise growth rates (i.e., build productive capacities) and distributive policy measures such as the introduction or expansion of income transfers, and ensuring investments in public goods are sufficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Arief Anshory Yusuf & Zuzy Anna & Ahmad Komarulzaman & Andy Sumner, 2024. "Will the poverty‐related UN Sustainable Development Goals be met? New projections," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 15(5), pages 823-837, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:glopol:v:15:y:2024:i:5:p:823-837
    DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.13415
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13415
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1758-5899.13415?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wood, Geof & Gough, Ian, 2006. "A Comparative Welfare Regime Approach to Global Social Policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1696-1712, October.
    2. Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1996. "Wealthier is Healthier," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(4), pages 841-868.
    3. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(4), pages 617-654, October.
    4. Ganesh Rauniyar & Ravi Kanbur, 2010. "Inclusive growth and inclusive development: a review and synthesis of Asian Development Bank literature," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 455-469.
    5. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Zuzy Anna & Ahmad Komarulzaman & Andy Sumner, 2023. "Will economic growth be sufficient to end global poverty?: New projections of the UN Sustainable Development Goals," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-123, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. repec:hal:pseose:hal-00975545 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Cinar Baymul & Kunal Sen, 2020. "Was Kuznets Right? New Evidence on the Relationship between Structural Transformation and Inequality," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(9), pages 1643-1662, July.
    8. Maria Emma Santos & Carlos Dabus & Fernando Delbianco, 2019. "Growth and Poverty Revisited from a Multidimensional Perspective," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 260-277, February.
    9. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Fengler & Homi Kharas & Karim Bekhtiar & Michael Brottrager & Martin Hofer, 2018. "Will the Sustainable Development Goals be fulfilled? Assessing present and future global poverty," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    10. Loayza, Norman V. & Raddatz, Claudio, 2010. "The composition of growth matters for poverty alleviation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 137-151, September.
    11. Gupta, Sanjeev & Verhoeven, Marijn & Tiongson, Erwin R., 2002. "The effectiveness of government spending on education and health care in developing and transition economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 717-737, November.
    12. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. "Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
    13. Martin Ravallion, 2012. "Why Don't We See Poverty Convergence?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 504-523, February.
    14. Kunal Sen, 2014. "Inclusive Growth: When May We Expect It? When May We Not?," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 31(1), pages 136-162, March.
    15. Bourguignon, Francois & Morrisson, Christian, 1998. "Inequality and development: the role of dualism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 233-257.
    16. Jolliffe,Dean Mitchell & Mahler,Daniel Gerszon & Lakner,Christoph & Atamanov,Aziz & Tetteh Baah,Samuel Kofi, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of the 2017 PPPs on the International Poverty Line and Global Poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9941, The World Bank.
    17. Bjoern Soergel & Elmar Kriegler & Isabelle Weindl & Sebastian Rauner & Alois Dirnaichner & Constantin Ruhe & Matthias Hofmann & Nico Bauer & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Marian Leimbac, 2021. "A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 656-664, August.
    18. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 2002. "Why has economic growth been more pro-poor in some states of India than others?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 381-400, August.
    19. Adams, Richard Jr., 2004. "Economic Growth, Inequality and Poverty: Estimating the Growth Elasticity of Poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 1989-2014, December.
    20. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    21. Moyer, Jonathan D., 2023. "Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dewa Putu Yudi Pardita & Satoshi Yamamoto, 2026. "The Role of Socioeconomic and Environmental Factors in Achieving Sustainable Development: Evidence from G20 Nations," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 3-21.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erumban, Abdul A. & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2024. "Structural change and poverty reduction in developing economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    2. Khalid Sekkat, 2023. "Does economic growth benefit the poor? The role of institutions and religions," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 892-918, November.
    3. Tarlok Singh, 2022. "Economic growth and the state of poverty in India: sectoral and provincial perspectives," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1251-1302, August.
    4. Wannaphong Durongkaveroj, 2024. "Trade openness and the growth-poverty nexus: Reappraisal with a new openness indicator," Departmental Working Papers 2024-7, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    5. Christopher Hoy & Andy Sumner, 2021. "The End of Global Poverty: Is the UN Sustainable Development Goal 1 (Still) Achievable?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(4), pages 419-429, September.
    6. Luc Christiaensen & Lionel Demery & Jesper Kühl, 2010. "The (Evolving) Role of Agriculture in Poverty Reduction," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-036, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Christiaensen, Luc & Demery, Lionel & Kuhl, Jesper, 2011. "The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction--An empirical perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 239-254, November.
    8. Balasubramanian, P. & Burchi, F. & Malerba, D., 2023. "Does economic growth reduce multidimensional poverty? Evidence from low- and middle-income countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    9. Ms. Valerie Cerra & Mr. Ruy Lama & Norman Loayza, 2021. "Links Between Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2021/068, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Christiaensen, Luc & Demery, Lionel & Kuhl, Jesper, 2006. "The role of agriculture in poverty reduction an empirical perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4013, The World Bank.
    11. Bao, Yanxi & Liao, Tingxuan, 2024. "Multidimensional poverty and growth: Evidence from India 1998–2021," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Jorge Garza-Rodriguez, 2018. "Poverty and Economic Growth in Mexico," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-9, September.
    13. Sushanta K. Mallick, 2014. "Disentangling the Poverty Effects of Sectoral Output, Prices, and Policies in India," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 773-801, December.
    14. Bourguignon, Francois, 2005. "The Effect of Economic Growth on Social Structures," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 27, pages 1701-1747, Elsevier.
    15. Ismael Ahamdanech & Carmelo García-Pérez & Mercedes Prieto-Alaiz, 2020. "A Stochastic Dominance Approach to Evaluating Pro-Poor Growth—An Application to the Spanish Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-16, February.
    16. Gebregziabher, Fiseha & Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel, 2014. "Social spending and aggregate welfare in developing and transition economies," WIDER Working Paper Series 082, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Abu Bakkar Siddique, 2023. "Job market polarization and American poverty," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 57(1), pages 1-24, December.
    18. Oberdabernig, Doris A., 2013. "Revisiting the Effects of IMF Programs on Poverty and Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 113-142.
    19. Sinha Roy, Sutirtha & van der Weide, Roy, 2025. "Estimating poverty for India after 2011 using private-sector survey data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    20. Mcknight, Abigail, 2019. "Understanding the relationship between poverty, inequality and growth: a review of existing evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103458, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:glopol:v:15:y:2024:i:5:p:823-837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.