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Growth and Convergence in a Two-Region Model of Unified Germany

  • Frank Siebern
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    The paper sets up a two-region endogenous growth model to discuss growth and regional convergence of unified Germany. It emphasizes the role of private and public capital accumulation during the developing process. The theoretical part derives fiscal policy rules which establish convergence of regional output per capita and convergence of regional human wealth. To assess the speed of convergence the model is calibrated with German data. Given a fiscal policy rule that is consistent with the data on government spending in East and West Germany after unification the model suggests that East Germany will reach 80 per cent of West Germany's income per capita between 20 and 30 years after unification and that actual transfers are approximately sufficient to equalize regional human wealth. The results are compared with an extension of the model that includes wage-setting behaviour and unemployment in the eastern region. Copyright Verein fü Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2000.

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    Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 1 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 3 (08)
    Pages: 363-384

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:1:y:2000:i:3:p:363-384
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    1. Jennifer Hunt, 1999. "Post-Unification Wage Growth in East Germany," NBER Working Papers 6878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. James Heckman, 1997. "Instrumental Variables: A Study of Implicit Behavioral Assumptions Used in Making Program Evaluations," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 32(3), pages 441-462.
    4. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March.
    5. Brainerd, Elizabeth, 1998. "Winners and Losers in Russia's Economic Transition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1094-1116, December.
    6. Alan B. Krueger & Jorn-Steffen Pischke, 1992. "A Comparative Analysis of East and West German Labor Markets: Before and After Unification," NBER Working Papers 4154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Card, David & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1988. "Measuring the Effect of Subsidized Training Programs on Movements in and out of Employment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 497-530, May.
    8. Flanagan, Robert J., 1998. "Were communists good human capitalists? The case of the Czech Republic," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 295-312, September.
    9. Joshua D. Angrist, 1995. "Estimating the Labor Market Impact of Voluntary Military Service Using Social Security Data on Military Applicants," NBER Working Papers 5192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Alexeev, Michael & Kaganovich, Michael, 1998. "Returns to human capital under uncertain reform: Good guys finish last," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 53-70, September.
    11. Orazem, Peter F. & Vodopivec, Milan, 1997. "Value of human capital in transition to market: Evidence from Slovenia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 893-903, April.
    12. J.D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens & D.B. Rubin, 1993. "Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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