IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/finrev/v60y2025i1p13-32.html

Carbon risk and equity prices

Author

Listed:
  • Arthur Enders
  • Thomas Lontzek
  • Karl Schmedders
  • Marco Thalhammer

Abstract

We study the effects of carbon transition risk on equity prices in the United States and Europe using disclosed carbon intensity data and find a negative effect on the cross section of returns and a negative carbon premium for the period 2009–2019. Examining fund flows, we find that institutional investors had an aversion to carbon‐intensive stocks, which could help explain the outperformance of green stocks. We find that after the Paris Agreement this negative carbon premium disappears, and expect a positive premium in the future. We apply an asset‐pricing approach to quantify the carbon risk exposure of any given asset.

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur Enders & Thomas Lontzek & Karl Schmedders & Marco Thalhammer, 2025. "Carbon risk and equity prices," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 13-32, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:60:y:2025:i:1:p:13-32
    DOI: 10.1111/fire.12414
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/fire.12414
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/fire.12414?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jitendra Aswani & Aneesh Raghunandan & Shiva Rajgopal, 2024. "Are Carbon Emissions Associated with Stock Returns?—Reply," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 111-115.
    2. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    3. Mo, Jian-Lei & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2012. "The impact of the EU ETS on the corporate value of European electricity corporations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 3-11.
    4. Bolton, Patrick & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2021. "Do investors care about carbon risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 517-549.
    5. Jitendra Aswani & Aneesh Raghunandan & Shiva Rajgopal, 2024. "Are Carbon Emissions Associated with Stock Returns?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 75-106.
    6. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2021. "Sustainable investing in equilibrium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 550-571.
    7. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    8. Oestreich, A. Marcel & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2015. "Carbon emissions and stock returns: Evidence from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 294-308.
    9. Philipp Krueger & Zacharias Sautner & Laura T Starks, 2020. "The Importance of Climate Risks for Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1067-1111.
    10. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2022. "Dissecting green returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 403-424.
    11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    12. Bauer, Michael & Huber, Daniel & Rudebusch, Glenn & Wilms, Ole, 2022. "Where is the carbon premium? Global performance of green and brown stocks," Other publications TiSEM 6b117156-316d-440a-9fa5-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. John R. Nofsinger & Richard W. Sias, 1999. "Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2263-2295, December.
    14. Florian Berg & Julian F Kölbel & Roberto Rigobon, 2022. "Aggregate Confusion: The Divergence of ESG Ratings [Corporate social responsibility and firm risk: theory and empirical evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1315-1344.
    15. Po‐Hsuan Hsu & Kai Li & Chi‐Yang Tsou, 2023. "The Pollution Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1343-1392, June.
    16. Rohleder, Martin & Wilkens, Marco & Zink, Jonas, 2022. "The effects of mutual fund decarbonization on stock prices and carbon emissions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Patrick Bolton & Marcin Kacperczyk, 2023. "Global Pricing of Carbon‐Transition Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(6), pages 3677-3754, December.
    18. Aswani, Jitendra & Raghunandan, Aneesh & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2024. "Are carbon emissions associated with StockReturns? - Reply," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121632, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Hong, Harrison & Li, Frank Weikai & Xu, Jiangmin, 2019. "Climate risks and market efficiency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 265-281.
    20. Aswani, Jitendra & Raghunandan, Aneesh & Rajgopal, Shivaram, 2024. "Are carbon emissions associated with stock returns?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118364, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Zacharias Sautner & Laurence van Lent & Grigory Vilkov & Ruishen Zhang, 2023. "Pricing Climate Change Exposure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7540-7561, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Franck Bancel & Dejan Glavas & G. Andrew Karolyi, 2025. "Do ESG factors influence firm valuations? Evidence from the field," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1191-1223, November.
    2. Wang, Yifei & Zhang, Yingying, 2025. "Economic policy uncertainty, carbon risk and China's stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Carlei, Vittorio & Furia, Donatella & Ceccarelli, Alessandro & Cascioli, Piera, 2025. "Outperforming ESG stocks portfolio: A machine learning ranking model with catboots regressor," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Duppati, Geeta, 2025. "Carbon pricing and revenue growth valuation risk exposure," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fliegel, Philip, 2025. "“Brown” Risk or “Green” Opportunity? The dynamic pricing of climate transition risk on global financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Alves, Rómulo & Krüger, Philipp & van Dijk, Mathijs, 2025. "Drawing up the bill: Are ESG ratings related to stock returns around the world?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Carina Cuculiza & Alok Kumar & Wei Xin & Chendi Zhang, 2026. "Temperature Sensitivity, Mispricing, and Predictable Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 72(3), pages 1918-1958, March.
    4. Hambel, Christoph & van der Sanden, Floor, 2025. "Reevaluating the carbon premium: Evidence of green outperformance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Tang, Iengchuo & Dias, Roshanthi & Mo, Di & Tian, Xiao, 2025. "When green turns brown: Green premium revisited," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    6. Chan, Keith Jin Deng & Wan, Wilson Tsz Shing, 2026. "The double-edged sword of corporate net zero commitment on the carbon risk premium," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    7. Huij, Joop & Laurs, Dries & van Zanten, Jan Anton, 2025. "The investment implications of sustainable investing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Ahn, Byung Hyun & Dutta, Sunil & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2025. "Corporate carbon overhang: Valuing corporate exposure to future carbon costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Wilberg, Sindre & Kjellevoll, Vibeke & Holz, Franziska & Neumann, Anne, 2025. "Impact of ESG performance on the cost of capital in the energy, utilities, and basic materials sectors," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    10. Benchora, Inessa & Leroy, Aurélien & Raffestin, Louis, 2025. "Is monetary policy transmission green?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    11. Horn, Matthias & Oehler, Andreas & Dabbous, Amal & Croutzet, Alexandre, 2025. "The relation between environmental awareness and stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    12. Duineveld, Sijmen & Hambel, Christoph & Lessmann, Kai, 2025. "Green investors and the return on capital in general equilibrium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    13. Faccini, Renato & Matin, Rastin & Skiadopoulos, George, 2023. "Dissecting climate risks: Are they reflected in stock prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    14. Nguyen, Justin Hung & Truong, Cameron & Zhang, Bohui, 2025. "The price of carbon risk: Evidence from the Kyoto Protocol ratification," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Coqueret, Guillaume & Tavin, Bertrand & Zhou, Yuxin, 2026. "Sustainability in commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    16. Prodosh Eugene Simlai, 2025. "Non-Pecuniary Risk, ESG Ratings, and Expected Stock Returns," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-24, August.
    17. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    18. Minh Nhat Nguyen & Ruipeng Liu, 2025. "Do stock markets care about climate change: A public media perspective," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 25(1), March.
    19. Wong, Jin Boon & Zhang, Qin, 2025. "The impact of political risks on carbon emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    20. Hambel, Christoph & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2025. "Policy transition risk, carbon premiums, and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:60:y:2025:i:1:p:13-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.