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A Comparative Static Model of the Relationship between Immigration and the Short‐Run Job Prospects of Unemployed Residents

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  • BRUCE CHAPMAN
  • DEBORAH COBB‐CLARK

Abstract

A novel theoretical approach is developed to illustrate the consequences of immigration for the probability that unemployed residents gain a job. Through the use of the vacancies to unemployment ratio it is shown that immigration in theory can either increase or decrease unemployed residents' employment probabilities, but that, contrary to populist rhetoric, an increase is more likely the more recessed is the labour market. With reference to feasible Australian values of the parameters of interest, it is demonstrated that in practically all circumstances immigration increases the overall employment prospects of unemployed residents. Even so, the analysis is very short run, and strong conclusions as to what might be happening over the longer term are not appropriate.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Chapman & Deborah Cobb‐Clark, 1999. "A Comparative Static Model of the Relationship between Immigration and the Short‐Run Job Prospects of Unemployed Residents," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(4), pages 358-368, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:75:y:1999:i:4:p:358-368
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1999.tb02572.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pope, David & Withers, Glenn, 1993. "Do Migrants Rob Jobs? Lessons of Australian History, 1861–1991," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 719-742, December.
    2. Marr, William L. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1994. "The link between immigration and unemployment in Canada," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Harrison, David S, 1984. "The Impact of Immigration on a Depressed Labour Market: The South Australian Experience," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 60(168), pages 57-67, March.
    4. Jerome Fahrer & Andrew Pease, 1993. "The Unemployment‐Vacancy Relationship in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 26(4), pages 43-57, October.
    5. David S. Harrison, 1984. "The Impact of Immigration on a Depressed Labour Market: The South Australian Experience," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 60(1), pages 57-67, March.
    6. Jerome Fahrer & Andrew Pease, 1993. "The Unemployment/Vacancy Relationship in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9305, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Kahanec, Martin, 2008. "Migration, the Quality of the Labour Force and Economic Inequality," CEPR Discussion Papers 6899, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. ., 2012. "Migration impact assessment: a state of the art," Chapters, in: Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot & Mediha Sahin (ed.), Migration Impact Assessment, chapter 1, pages 3-62, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Timothy J. Hatton & Massimiliano Tani, 2005. "Immigration and Inter-Regional Mobility in the UK, 1982-2000," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages 342-358, November.
    4. Kahanec, Martin, 2012. "Skilled Labor Flows: Lessons from the European Union," IZA Research Reports 49, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Kahanec, Martin, 2008. "International Migration, Ethnicity and Economic Inequality," CEPR Discussion Papers 6797, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Martin Kahanec & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Migration in an Enlarged EU: A Challenging Solution?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 849, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Nijkamp, P. & Poot, H.J., 2012. "Migration impact assessment: A state of the art," Serie Research Memoranda 0009, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    8. Jaai Parasnis & Dietrich Fausten & Russell Smyth, 2006. "The Impact of Immigration on Native Workers in Australia," Monash Economics Working Papers archive-40, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    9. Fernando Rios-Avila & Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, 2020. "The Effect of Immigration on Labor Market Transitions of Native-Born Unemployed in the United States," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 295-331, September.
    10. Jaai Parasnis, 2010. "Estimating The Relationship Between Immigrant And Native Workers In Australia: A Production Theory Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 73-85, March.
    11. Asadul Islam, 2007. "Immigration Unemployment Relationship: The Evidence From Canada," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 52-66, March.
    12. Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Kahanec, Martin & Giulietti, Corrado & Guzi, Martin & Barrett, Alan & Maitre, Bertrand, 2012. "Study on Active Inclusion of Migrants," IZA Research Reports 43, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Rob Hodgson & Jacques Poot, 2011. "New Zealand Research on the Economic Impacts of Immigration 2005-2010: Synthesis and Research Agenda," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1104, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).

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