IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecopol/v33y2021i1p172-204.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock markets in turmoil: political institutions and the impact of elections

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Lausegger

Abstract

This paper explores how elections impact stock markets across diverse political institutions. I argue that electoral and party systems impact the fragmentation, credibility, and predictability of electoral information, influencing levels of uncertainty resolved by elections and leading to distinct stock market reactions. First, elections in majoritarian electoral systems produce larger cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) than elections in proportional representation systems. Second, the weaker institutionalized a party systems is, the larger are the CARs around elections. Third, these two institutional variables interact. Elections in majoritarian (proportional representation) systems with weak (strong) party system institutionalizations will have particularly large (small) CARs. I formally derive these propositions, conduct event studies of the impact of 87 elections on SMs in 21 countries from 1999 to 2016, and analyze four case studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Lausegger, 2021. "Stock markets in turmoil: political institutions and the impact of elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 172-204, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:33:y:2021:i:1:p:172-204
    DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12169
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12169
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecpo.12169?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    2. Lawless, Martina & Whelan, Karl T., 2011. "Understanding the dynamics of labor shares and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 121-136, June.
    3. P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2013. "Day-of-the-Week Effects in the Indian stock market," MPRA Paper 46805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Philippe Aghion, 2005. "Growth and Institutions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 3-18, March.
    5. Sen, Debapriya & Tauman, Yair, 2007. "General licensing schemes for a cost-reducing innovation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 163-186, April.
    6. David Leblang & Bumba Mukherjee, 2005. "Government Partisanship, Elections, and the Stock Market: Examining American and British Stock Returns, 1930–2000," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(4), pages 780-802, October.
    7. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    8. Armitage, Seth, 1995. "Event Study Methods and Evidence on Their Performance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 25-52, March.
    9. Otmar Issing, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle: general discussion," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 245-251.
    10. Lewis, Jeffrey B. & Linzer, Drew A., 2005. "Estimating Regression Models in Which the Dependent Variable Is Based on Estimates," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 345-364.
    11. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, April.
    12. Michael Griesser & Qi Ma & Simone Webber & Katharine Bowgen & David J T Sumpter, 2011. "Understanding Animal Group-Size Distributions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(8), pages 1-9, August.
    13. Roberts, Kenneth M. & Wibbels, Erik, 1999. "Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(3), pages 575-590, September.
    14. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    15. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521707404, October.
    16. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    17. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    18. Jan Hanousek & Evzen Kocenda & Jan Novotny, 2014. "Price jumps on European stock markets," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 14(1), pages 10-22, March.
    19. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    20. Jef Vuchelen, 2003. "Electoral systems and the effects of political events on the stock market: The Belgian case," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 85-102, March.
    21. João Ferreira do Amaral, 2007. "Generalized Dynamic Systems," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/08, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    22. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Forsythe, Robert & Rietz, Thomas A. & Ross, Thomas W., 1999. "Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-110, May.
    24. Tábora, Marlon R., 2007. "Condiciones generales de competencia en Honduras," Estudios y Perspectivas – Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México 5009, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    25. Oecd, 2011. "Understanding the EU Financial Thresholds," SIGMA Public Procurement Briefs 5, OECD Publishing.
    26. P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2013. "Stock Market Linkages in Emerging Asia-Pacific Markets," MPRA Paper 45871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521881029, October.
    28. Paul A. Samuelson, 1973. "Proof That Properly Discounted Present Values of Assets Vibrate Randomly," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(2), pages 369-374, Autumn.
    29. Ucw, 2011. "Understanding children’s work in Bangladesh," UCW Country Studies 17, Understanding Children's Work (UCW Programme).
    30. Ana Carolina Garriga, 2016. "Central Bank Independence in the World: A New Data Set," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 849-868, October.
    31. Bernhard,William & Leblang,David, 2006. "Democratic Processes and Financial Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521861229, October.
    32. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    33. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    34. Bernhard,William & Leblang,David, 2006. "Democratic Processes and Financial Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521678384, October.
    35. Riker, William H., 1982. "The Two-party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 753-766, December.
    36. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    37. Maria Boutchkova & Hitesh Doshi & Art Durnev & Alexander Molchanov, 2012. "Precarious Politics and Return Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1111-1154.
    38. Otmar Issing, 2007. "The housing finance revolution: general discussion," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 85-88.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Delia DiaconaÅŸu & Seyed Mehdian & Ovidiu Stoica, 2023. "The Global Stock Market Reactions to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nathan Jensen, 2007. "International institutions and market expectations: Stock price responses to the WTO ruling on the 2002 U.S. steel tariffs," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 261-280, September.
    2. Civilize, Sireethorn & Wongchoti, Udomsak & Young, Martin, 2015. "Military regimes and stock market performance," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 76-95.
    3. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
    4. Coulomb, Renaud & Sangnier, Marc, 2014. "The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 158-170.
    5. Vicentina Gomes, Liliane & Odálio dos Santos, José & Lana Silva, Cristiane & Ferreira de Souza, Maurício, 2018. "Divulgações de informações e o efeito no retorno de ações da maior empresa de educação listada na B3 (Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão) [Information disclosures and the effect on the return of stocks of the l," MPRA Paper 93123, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 May 2018.
    6. Ye, Dezhu & Liu, Shasha & Kong, Dongmin, 2013. "Do efforts on energy saving enhance firm values? Evidence from China's stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 360-369.
    7. Ehnts, Dirk & Carrión Álvarez, Miguel, 2013. "The theory of reflexivity: A non-stochastic randomness theory for business schools only?," IPE Working Papers 28/2013, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    8. Nunes, Mauro Fracarolli, 2018. "Supply chain contamination: An exploratory approach on the collateral effects of negative corporate events," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 573-587.
    9. Philipp M. Schlumpf & Markus M. Schmid & Heinz Zimmermann, 2008. "The First‐ and Second‐Hand Effect of Analysts' Stock Recommendations: Evidence from the Swiss Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(5), pages 962-988, November.
    10. Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2013. "Corporate campaign contributions and abnormal stock returns after presidential elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 285-307, July.
    11. Will, Matthias Georg, 2012. "Eine kurze Ideengeschichte der Kapitalmarkttheorie: Fundamentaldatenanalyse, Effizienzmarkthypothese und Behavioral Finance," Discussion Papers 2012-4, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    12. Matteo Burzoni & Frank Riedel & H. Mete Soner, 2021. "Viability and Arbitrage Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1207-1234, May.
    13. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    14. Daniel Carnahan & Sebastian Saiegh, 2021. "Electoral uncertainty and financial volatility: Evidence from two‐round presidential races in emerging markets," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 109-132, March.
    15. Samuel Tabot Enow, 2023. "Investigating Joint Market Hypothesis during Periods of Financial Distress and its Implications," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 46-50, March.
    16. Daniel Martin Katz & Michael J Bommarito II & Tyler Soellinger & James Ming Chen, 2015. "Law on the Market? Abnormal Stock Returns and Supreme Court Decision-Making," Papers 1508.05751, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    17. David Howarth & Lucia Quaglia, 2015. "The political economy of the euro area's sovereign debt crisis: introduction to the special issue of the Review of International Political Economy," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 457-484, June.
    18. Teresa Valeria Parise & Vijay Shenai, 2018. "The Value Effect of Financial Reform on U.K. Banks and Insurance Companies," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-28, September.
    19. Coulomb, Renaud & Sangnier, Marc, 2014. "The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 158-170.
    20. Azubuike Samuel Agbam, 2015. "Tests of Random Walk and Efficient Market Hypothesis in Developing Economies: Evidence from Nigerian Capital Market," International Journal of Management Sciences, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 1-53.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:33:y:2021:i:1:p:172-204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0954-1985 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.