IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ipewps/282013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The theory of reflexivity: A non-stochastic randomness theory for business schools only?

Author

Listed:
  • Ehnts, Dirk
  • Carrión Álvarez, Miguel

Abstract

The Alchemy of Finance, a book written by George Soros (1987) on the workings of financial markets, 'has found a place in the reading lists of business schools as distinct from economics departments', according to the author (2003, 4). His theory of reflexivity, which is at the center of the book, states that interdependence exists between the cognitive and manipulative functions of market participants. While Soros claims that imperfect knowledge rules on financial markets, academic orthodoxy assumes perfect knowledge and hence displays - in the absence of external shocks - financial markets as efficient. We review the work of Soros on reflexivity and follow up his claim that it can be used to attack the efficient market hypothesis. Both are discussed and then the ideas of Soros are compared to those of Post-Keynesian economics. We argue that Soros' book is mainly ignored by neo-classical economists because they disagree with his axioms, and by heterodox economists because his ideas are not new.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehnts, Dirk & Carrión Álvarez, Miguel, 2013. "The theory of reflexivity: A non-stochastic randomness theory for business schools only?," IPE Working Papers 28/2013, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ipewps:282013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/88428/1/773891072.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Viral V. Acharya & Douglas Gale & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2011. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1177-1209, August.
    2. Hyman P. Minsky, 1957. "Central Banking and Money Market Changes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 71(2), pages 171-187.
    3. repec:cup:judgdm:v:7:y:2012:i:6:p:746-749 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    5. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Alan S. Blinder & Ricardo Reis, 2005. "Understanding the Greenspan standard," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 11-96.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    10. repec:pri:cepsud:114blinderreis is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jan Toporowski, 2005. "Theories of Financial Disturbance," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3179.
    12. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    13. Alan Greenspan, 2005. "Risk transfer and financial stability," Proceedings 968, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    14. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    15. Sergey V. Chernenko, 2004. "The information content of forward and futures prices: market expectations and the price of risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 808, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    17. Paul A. Samuelson, 1973. "Proof That Properly Discounted Present Values of Assets Vibrate Randomly," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(2), pages 369-374, Autumn.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Carrión Álvarez & Dirk Ehnts, 2016. "Samuelson and Davidson on ergodicity: A reformulation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 1-16, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2018. "Fractality in market risk structure: Dow Jones Industrial components case," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 69-75.
    2. Qianwei Ying & Tahir Yousaf & Qurat ul Ain & Yasmeen Akhtar & Muhammad Shahid Rasheed, 2019. "Stock Investment and Excess Returns: A Critical Review in the Light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Nathan Jensen, 2007. "International institutions and market expectations: Stock price responses to the WTO ruling on the 2002 U.S. steel tariffs," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 261-280, September.
    4. Andrea Antico & Giulio Bottazzi & Daniele Giachini, 2022. "On the evolutionary stability of the sentiment investor," LEM Papers Series 2022/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2013. "Corporate campaign contributions and abnormal stock returns after presidential elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 285-307, July.
    6. Romain Bocher, 2023. "Causal Entropic Forces, Narratives and Self-organisation of Capital Markets," Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, , vol. 35(2), pages 172-190, July.
    7. Thomas Holtfort, 2019. "From standard to evolutionary finance: a literature survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 207-232, June.
    8. Matteo Burzoni & Frank Riedel & H. Mete Soner, 2021. "Viability and Arbitrage Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1207-1234, May.
    9. Veronika NOVOTNA & Stanislav SKAPA & Milan KRAPEK, 2020. "The Existence Of The Day-Of-The-Week Effect," Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(1), pages 915-923, November.
    10. Taufiq Choudhry & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2015. "Level of efficiency in the UK equity market: empirical study of the effects of the global financial crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 213-242, February.
    11. Saggese, Pietro & Belmonte, Alessandro & Dimitri, Nicola & Facchini, Angelo & Böhme, Rainer, 2023. "Arbitrageurs in the Bitcoin ecosystem: Evidence from user-level trading patterns in the Mt. Gox exchange platform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 251-270.
    12. Patrick Bisciari & Alain Durré & Alain Nyssens, 2003. "Stock market valuation in the United States," Working Paper Document 41, National Bank of Belgium.
    13. Martin Lausegger, 2021. "Stock markets in turmoil: political institutions and the impact of elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 172-204, March.
    14. Marc D. Joffe, 2012. "Rating Government Bonds: Can We Raise Our Grade?," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(3), pages 350-365, September.
    15. Will, Matthias Georg, 2012. "Eine kurze Ideengeschichte der Kapitalmarkttheorie: Fundamentaldatenanalyse, Effizienzmarkthypothese und Behavioral Finance," Discussion Papers 2012-4, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    16. Daniel Martin Katz & Michael J Bommarito II & Tyler Soellinger & James Ming Chen, 2015. "Law on the Market? Abnormal Stock Returns and Supreme Court Decision-Making," Papers 1508.05751, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    17. Achim BACKHAUS & Aliya ZHAKANOVA ISIKSAL, 2016. "The Impact of Momentum Factors on Multi Asset Portfolio," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 146-169, December.
    18. Christopher R. Stephens & Harald A. Benink & José Luís Gordillo & Juan Pablo Pardo-Guerra, 2021. "A New Measure of Market Inefficiency," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, June.
    19. Azubuike Samuel Agbam, 2015. "Tests of Random Walk and Efficient Market Hypothesis in Developing Economies: Evidence from Nigerian Capital Market," International Journal of Management Sciences, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 1-53.
    20. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    efficient market hypothesis; theory of reflexivity; George Soros;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ipewps:282013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iphwrde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.