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Eine kurze Ideengeschichte der Kapitalmarkttheorie: Fundamentaldatenanalyse, Effizienzmarkthypothese und Behavioral Finance

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  • Will, Matthias Georg

Abstract

Dieser Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit den Theoriebeiträgen der Fundamentaldatenanalyse, der Effizienzmarkthypothese und der Behavioral Finance. Die Fundamentaldatenanalyse bietet einzelnen Investoren eine leistungsfähige Heuristik, wie sie auf volatilen Märkten ihre Spielzüge optimieren können. Die Effizienzmarkthypothese versucht stattdessen, den Preisbildungsprozess auf tiefen Märkten zu erklären. Hierzu reduziert die Hypothese die Komplexität der Annahmen so stark, dass selbst die Neoklassik übertroffen wird. Die Theoriekonzeption der Behavioral Finance geht dagegen einen entgegengesetzten Weg: Durch möglichst „realistische“ Annahmen soll das Verhalten an den Kapitalmärkten präzise beschrieben werden. Überraschend ist, dass die Effizienzmarkthypothese trotz realitätsferner Annahmen die Behavioral Finance nicht nur hinsichtlich des Grades der Komplexitätsreduktion überbietet, sondern auch bezüglich der Prognosekraft. Aus der Theoriekonzeption der Ökonomik überrascht dies allerdings nicht. Das Geschehen auf tiefen Märkten lässt sich nicht zwangsläufig aus dem Verhalten in Kleingruppen oder mit psychologischen Ansätzen erklären.

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  • Will, Matthias Georg, 2012. "Eine kurze Ideengeschichte der Kapitalmarkttheorie: Fundamentaldatenanalyse, Effizienzmarkthypothese und Behavioral Finance," Discussion Papers 2012-4, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:mlucee:20124
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