IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ausecp/v65y2026i2p117-126.html

Deciphering the Global Phillips Curve Using Sub‐National Data in India's Inflation Targeting Era: Some Policy Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Razique Anwar
  • Atulan Guha

Abstract

Our study examines the short‐run Phillips Curve relationship using sub‐national data from India to analyze inflation and unemployment dynamics during the inflation targeting era (IT) framework under the Global Phillips Curve (GPC) framework. It aims to identify whether the established relationship varies across different inflation regimes. Using panel data from 15 Indian states from January 2016 to May 2022, we employed the Accelerationist Phillips Curve (APC) and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) forms of the GPC. We analyzed the relationship using panel‐data econometric techniques. We found no statistically significant Phillips Curve relationship on average; only isolated positive coefficients occur in a few short regimes with small samples, which might be random and transitory. The study indicates that inflation dynamics may differ across sub‐national levels, possibly weakening the unemployment‐inflation trade‐off in India's informal labor market. The findings suggest that traditional macroeconomic tools based on the national Phillips Curve, like monetary interventions, may not be practical in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Razique Anwar & Atulan Guha, 2026. "Deciphering the Global Phillips Curve Using Sub‐National Data in India's Inflation Targeting Era: Some Policy Implications," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 117-126, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:65:y:2026:i:2:p:117-126
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.70020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70020
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8454.70020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:65:y:2026:i:2:p:117-126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0004-900X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.